According to the latest update from ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Utah Utes have jumped into the top spot among Big 12 teams. Their FPI rating sits at 21.0, just barely ahead of Texas Tech at 20.6 and well in front of BYU’s 16.9.
That might come as a surprise to fans who have been watching Texas Tech get all the love this season. The Red Raiders have looked like the most dangerous team in the league more weeks than not, and their win column backs it up. But FPI doesn’t just reward wins. It’s a formula that mixes in schedule difficulty, offensive and defensive efficiency, and expected outcomes in future games. Basically, it’s the math nerd’s way of ranking who’s legit, and right now the math says Utah is leading the pack.
The crazy part about that is they’ve lost to both Texas Tech and BYU this season, yet ESPN FPI loves how they’re set up for the rest of the year. Their defense has been suffocating, and even with some hiccups on offense, they’re doing more than enough to stack wins and gain respect from the computers.
Texas Tech isn’t far off, though. A 20.6 rating keeps them right on Utah’s heels, and one more dominant showing could flip things quickly. The Red Raiders are explosive, and they really haven’t been challenged all that much.
As for BYU, they’ve got some ground to make up. A 16.9 rating keeps them in the upper tier of the conference, but it also shows they’re a step behind the top two. They’ve got talent, but they’ll need a few statement wins to really shift that number in their favor.
The numbers will likely move over the next few weeks, but as it stands right now, the Big 12’s top dog, at least according to the formula, is Utah. Whether that holds depends on what happens over the next few Saturdays, but one thing’s clear: the Utes are for real, and the rest of the league is chasing them.
