What’s going on in the Big 12 and beyond? I expand and explain every Sunday in Postscripts at Heartland College Sports, your home for independent Big 12 coverage.
This week, I’m back on the Rule of 10, especially since Texas is campaigning for everyone to ignore its three losses.
The Rule of 10 and Power Conference Wins
When the College Football Playoff rankings came out on Tuesday night, Texas Tech found its way into the Top 4, meaning that if the Red Raiders win the Big 12 championship game on Saturday there is little doubt they’ll get a first-round bye. BYU — which just did a masterful job keeping its head coach, Kalani Sitake, from bolting for Penn State — was ranked No. 11. But, if the bracket were unveiled, the Cougars would be on the outside looking in.
I can make an argument that they shouldn’t be excluded. After all, I wrote about the “Rule of 10” last weekend, reasoning that a power conference team with at least 10 wins should be considered for the playoffs. But, as we enter conference championship weekend, there are 15 power conference teams with at least 10 or more wins — and that includes Notre Dame.
So, as the top-ranked Group of Six conference champion will get in the playoff — likely the winner of the American Conference title game — four power conference teams are going to be unhappy on Sunday morning. BYU could be one of them.
One of those 15 teams is not Texas, which has taken to the airwaves to make its case that a nine-win team from the SEC deserves a playoff bid. In fact, Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian is openly saying he’ll change his schedule to get to 10 wins. Vandy’s coach, Clark Lea, has even gotten the campaigning memo and appears to be drinking the SEC Kool-Aid, even though his team has 10 wins.
Both are making the same argument — they play in the SEC and therefore their road is just tougher. That basically disregards what the other three power conferences have to offer. But, teams in a power conference play nine or 10 games against power league opponents. So, what if we approach the Rule of 10 a little differently this week. What if we rank the 15 teams by power conference wins? Let’s give it a shot.
Ohio State (12-0) — 10-0
Indiana (12-0) — 9-0
Oregon (11-1) — 9-1
BYU (11-1) — 9-1
Georgia (11-1) — 8-1
Texas Tech (11-1) — 8-1
Texas A&M (11-1) — 8-1
Alabama (10-2) — 8-2
Notre Dame (10-2) — 8-2
Miami (10-2) — 8-2
Utah (10-2) — 8-2
Ole Miss (11-1) — 7-1
Virginia (10-2) — 7-2
Oklahoma (10-2) — 7-2
Vanderbilt (10-2) — 7-2
Note: Did not include games against Oregon State and Washington State.
So, what sticks out? Well, BYU has more wins against power conference teams than all but one team on the list, and that’s Ohio State, the nation’s No. 1 team. That’s one more win than Texas Tech, which didn’t play a power conference team in non-conference (we can have a debate about Oregon State but the Pac-12 isn’t a power league anymore, but was a power league when the game was scheduled).
None of the SEC teams have nine wins, but three of them have eight wins and two of them are playing in the SEC title game — Alabama and Georgia. Funny how that works, right?
Ole Miss, which appears to be all but certain to get in the CFP, has only seven wins against power conference teams. Same goes for Vanderbilt, which may be why Lea is campaigning.
Texas, that 9-3 team begging for a spot? The Longhorns are 6-3 against power conference teams. This isn’t about scheduling Ohio State. And Texas isn’t going to drop Ohio State because the SEC is requiring a non-conference power league game next year, along with nine conference games.
Even the CFP committee isn’t seeing the burnt orange logic.
At some point, your record is who you say you are. Texas’ record says it isn’t good enough. BYU’s record says it is. It’s that simple.
Yet, you have ESPN debating resumes and … not including BYU.
Not every win is the same, of course. But my point last weekend was that if you’re playing a power conference schedule, you’re going to play anywhere from nine to 10 games against power conference teams. If you’re not good enough, you’ll get found out. There are too many good teams out there for a team that isn’t good enough not to stumble. The Cougars weren’t good enough last year and stumbled twice down the stretch.
BYU’s only stumble this year was against Texas Tech. If the Cougars lose on Saturday, they’ll be 9-2 against power conference teams. Win or lose the only other teams with 11 games against power conference teams after Saturday will be Ohio State and Alabama. The Buckeyes and the Crimson Tide will surely get some credit for that, win or lose. And, win or lose, I have no issue with the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide being in the playoff.
Win or lose, I have no problem with BYU being in the playoff, either. The resume is there. The wins are there. A spot should be theirs. Yet, some — namely ESPN — are debating the point and leaving the Cougars out. It’s a shame some want this settled before we play the games.
