The 2025 Big 12 Football Championship Game is set to take place this weekend between the No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders and the No. 11 BYU Cougars. Each program is looking to win its first Big 12 Football Championship in program history. Texas Tech comes in with an 11-1 record, their only loss coming on the road to Arizona State. While BYU is also 11-1, with their only loss coming at Texas Tech. Texas Tech opened up as an 11.5-point favorite over BYU, with the over/under opened at 50.5 total points.
The game will kick off at 11:00 a.m. CT at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on ABC. Here are two key players to watch in this game, followed by the top storylines for each team, and a prediction from Heartland College Sports.
Two Key Players to Watch
Bear Bachmeier, BYU Quarterback
The true freshman quarterback has had an incredible season for the Cougars, leading the team to an 11-1 record. But his worst game of the season came in Lubbock, with a QBR of 58.1, finishing 23/38 for 188 yards, one touchdown and one interception. And one thing that Bachmeier likes to do is run the ball, and he could not find any running room at Tech, finishing with 11 carries for 12 yards, with a long of five yards. If BYU is going to pull off the upset, then BYU has to figure out how to get Bear Bachmeier going with his legs, which will open up the passing game.
Jacob Rodriguez, Texas Tech Linebacker
Everything with this top-ranked Texas Tech defense revolves around their Heisman-contending linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. He’s fourth in the Big 12 with 8.7 tackles per game, and is Top 11 in tackles for loss, passes defended and interceptions, while ranking No. 1 in the Big 12 with seven forced fumbles. He’s all over the field for this defense and if he had a Georgia or Alabama logo on his helmet, he’d be arguably the frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy.
Top Storylines
What did BYU Learn From Lubbock?
The BYU Cougars are awesome at home, but they’re not as good on the road. Now, they’re in a neutral site in Arlington, but there will be a huge showing for Texas Tech with so many alumni in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. BYU needs to figure out how to get a semblance of a running game going against Texas Tech’s defense that gives up less than 70 yards per game. If there is reason for optimism, it’s L.J. Martin. He was held to 35 yards on 10 carries vs. Texas Tech this season, but Martin’s status going into that game was questionable after he sat out the prior week’s second half at Iowa State with a shoulder injury. Does a 100% healthy L.J. Martin change the equation enough for the Cougars? And does that then open up some opportunities in the passing game?
Texas Tech Can’t Take Anything for Granted
Texas Tech is now No. 4 in the CFP rankings. If they win, they will get a bye in the Playoff. But they have to win. This team has not an amazing job not reading its own headlines and absolutely dominating almost every game its played in this season. I don’t expect that to stop now. But Tech needs to win the turnover battle here too. The only game they lost, to Arizona State, they didn’t force any turnovers and lost the turnover battle 1-0.
Texas Tech and BYU are both in the Top 10 in the country in average turnover margin. In Lubbock, Tech won the turnover battle 3-0. Do that again, and they’ll cruise to a victory.
Prediction: Texas Tech 30, BYU 17
I do think that BYU will get more offense in this game than they did in Lubbock. What Arizona State did to beat the Red Raiders was just throw, throw and throw (47 passing attempts). It’s too hard to run on these Red Raiders. But no matter what, it won’t be enough against a Texas Tech team that has had a near-perfect season. Eventually, BYU’s stout defense is doing to get worn down because the Cougars’ offense will not have sustained drives to give the defense the break it needs. Tech will pull away and get a comfortable victory and claim their first-ever Big 12 Championship.
