Joe Lunardi just dropped his latest bracketology update, and there’s good news and bad news if you’re a Big 12 basketball fan. The good news? The league’s got loads of teams in the mix. The bad news? A few of them are barely hanging on.
The obvious folks all showed up, with both Iowa State and Arizona listed as No. 1 seeds, and five total teams in the Top 16. The interesting part shows up when looking at the bubble. Baylor landed in the “Last Four Byes” tier, which is Lunardi-speak for “you’re in, but barely.” The Bears have shown flashes early in the season, but they’re also one rough week away from dropping back into true bubble territory. At this point, they’re in the tournament if it started today, but there’s not a whole lot of breathing room. If you’re Baylor, you’re hoping to stack some conference wins quickly, because living on the edge of the bracket isn’t where you want to be by February.
Then there’s UCF, sitting in the “Last Four In” category. That’s the line you don’t want to flirt with too long. UCF has played well enough to sneak into the field, but one misstep and they’re probably getting bumped. The Knights aren’t new to the Big 12 grind, but they’re going to have to steal some key wins to boost their stock throughout the season. It’s not just about talent; it’s about showing up in the right games and making those performances stick with the committee.
And then you’ve got TCU, sitting just outside the cut on the “First Four Out” line. That’s a frustrating spot to be in because it means you’re close, but not quite there. The Horned Frogs have had some opportunities to move the needle, but they haven’t done enough to punch through yet. They’ll need a quality win or two to climb back into the field. It’s not panic mode considering there’s a ton of season remaining, but it’s definitely something to watch.
The bubble’s a weird place to live, especially in December. There’s a long way to go, and the bracket’s going to look completely different in six weeks. But this is the first real snapshot of where things stand. For Baylor, UCF, and TCU, it’s a heads-up that there’s work to be done. The Big 12 will give them chances like it always does, but it’s up to them to take advantage of it.
