What’s going on in the Big 12 and beyond? I expand and explain every Sunday in Postscripts at Heartland College Sports, your home for independent Big 12 coverage.
This week, let’s dive into this College Football Playoff/Group of 5/Future of the game mess. Buckle up. It’s gonna be a bit and it will tie into the Big 12. After all, this is a Big 12 site.
Where is College Football Heading?
I’ve been doing this college football thing for a while. Darned near 30 years in some form. While out for the holidays I was prompted to look back a bit at all the games I’ve been to, especially the last 15 years.
For about 12 years I was editor-in-chief of the College Football America Yearbook. One year we put Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy on the cover. You may remember that. Well, as part of that yearbook, my partners and I traveled from coast-to-coast covering college football. It was a labor of love. It also meant that I’ve seen college football everywhere.
For every Ohio State-Michigan game I covered, I also covered a Mount Union-Baldwin Wallace game. For every Cal-Oregon game I covered, I also covered a Mary Hardin-Baylor-North Central game. For every Iowa State-Texas game I covered, I also covered Montana against North Dakota State.
I’ve seen the value college football has for a community, whether it’s Ann Arbor, Mich., or Belton, Texas. Whether it’s Fargo, N.D. or Columbus, Ohio. Whether it’s Tempe, Ariz., or Indiana, Penn. That’s why the debate around the College Football Playoff the past couple of weeks has been so disingenuous and so dangerous to the game we love.
Let’s start with the Group of 5, or I guess the Group of 6 now with the Pac-12. We all know that Tulane and James Madison made the CFP and lost their first-round games. But, before that, the college football tastemakers wanted you to believe that not only were they undeserving but that the entire system that granted them access was flawed. Here’s a sample, starting with the well-respected Joel Klatt digging his own grave and pouring dirt on the NCAA Tournament in the process.
Here he walks it back. Sort of.
Here he basically feels vindicated.
Urban Meyer — who worked his way up through Bowling Green and Utah into the SEC and Big Ten — is telling you that it “ not fair” for Tulane and James Madison to make the playoff and saying it to former Alabama running back Mark Ingram.
Here’s Danny Kanell being Danny Kanell.
I don’t know who this dude is, but it pretty much embodies what is being said.
Notice the trend? Those that have connections to big-time college football wants you to believe that half of FBS is a charity case. It’s a disingenuous argument built on their own self-interest and likely being nudged by the media partners they work for.
What’s especially galling is that Tulane and James Madison made it in based on the criteria set forth in the CFP rules that EVERYONE agreed to, including the power four conferences and Notre Dame. They were the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions. It’s no one’s fault the ACC was a mess this season. Well, it’s the ACC’s fault actually.
This isn’t the NFL. This is college football. There are nearly 1,000 teams across the country that play it at various levels, and 130+ play at the FBS level. If a team like Tulane and JMU plays at that level, they deserve a fair shot to play for a berth. The problem is they don’t play in a power conference, and those teams aren’t going to play those teams enough to help give them chances to prove it. That’s a function of money and who you know.
The power leagues just want their money games, so Tulane getting three power conference games in non-conference this season — and going 2-1 — is an anomaly the powers in this game aren’t willing to solve. But the CFP has said all along there is value in winning a conference title. That means you must include all 10 conferences in the sample.
Current CFP Format Benefits
The current format makes their conference championships and seasons matter, just as they do in the power conferences. Meyer’s argument is awful. This is a guy that helped build Utah into a program that could play power conference football and it’s as if he’s forgotten his roots.
You think the Green Wave or the Dukes thought that was unfair? That’s what they’re PLAYING for. The Green Wave and the Dukes knew that winning the conference title gave them a chance. Why should they have anything less to play for than BYU or Virginia, who lost their conference title games and didn’t make the playoff as a result? By the way if BYU beats Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game JMU doesn’t make it. Plenty of teams had their shot at keeping the Dukes out.
Excluding them doesn’t mean you’re fundamentally changing the playoff format and criteria. It means you are fundamentally changing the divisions in college football. And that’s what this argument is driving toward. And it’s an awful road to travel.
I went to an FCS school, Stephen F. Austin. If you read my stuff on a regular basis then you know that. This isn’t an issue for us because FCS has its own playoff, every conference champion gets in, and the selection process is relatively uncontroversial. But the different in FCS and FBS are incredibly clear. FCS programs get fewer scholarships, fewer roster spots, less NIL and a host of other differences.
Group of 6 schools play under the same criteria as the power conference schools — same scholarships, same attendance requirements, the whole thing. The only REAL difference between the two is money. That difference is bleeding into every part of the game and it’s threatening to choke what we love dry. If you care about that.
If we had this conversation 30 years ago, the game might be in a better place. We might have an FCS-style playoff system in FBS. We might have a system where the Sun Belt and the American could be more competitive with the power leagues. But the game’s powers were too wedded to the bowl game system to care. Now, the financial chasm is so vast between Texas and Appalachian State that even well-respected analysts see lopsided game scores in the first round and think the system is unfair … to the big guys. That’s where we are.
I want every school in FBS to have a fair shot at the playoff. I’ve wanted that for a long time. I think the schools in those conferences have wanted that for a long time. Up until about 25 years ago, many of them could financially compete with the bigger schools. But the finances are so out of whack that they can’t. But that shouldn’t limit their dreams, nor should it limit how we look at the playoff. The NFL figured this out in the 1960s. Then-commissioner Pete Rozelle managed to convince each team owner that equal revenue sharing, especially when it comes to television money, was in everyone’s best interest. This might be the single biggest reason why the NFL is the most popular league in the U.S.
No one in college sports has ever been this forward thinking. Change is glacial, when things change at all. Some are trying. We all know how Texas Tech uber-donor Cody Campbell feels about this. He wants to pool media rights and protect women’s and Olympic sports.
He has a kindred spirit in Boise State athletic director Jeremiah Dickey, who I crossed paths with on X last weekend. He WANTS to have the conversation about a host of issues and is trying to rally the other G-6 ADs to push the narrative.
There is a massive question that must be answered — do the power-that-be, namely the four power conference commissioners and their member schools — WANT to have that conversation? If we’re being honest, Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark should ABSOLUTELY want to have that conversation.
One of the offshoots of this conversation has been the gap between the SEC/Big Ten and the Big 12/ACC. I’ve seen some say the Big 12/ACC are closer to the G-6 than they are to the SEC/Big Ten and that the Big 12/ACC should band together with the G-6 to fight. Now, competition-wise, that’s absurd. The Big 12 and ACC are much closer to the Big Ten/SEC than the G-6.
Money-wise? That’s a different story. And that’s a problem for the Big 12. And no amount of partnership with RedBird or Weatherford or anyone else is going to help.
Conference Revenues at Stake
Consider this. Business of College Sports reported the per-school, per-year averages for television contracts starting in 2025-26:
Big Ten: $71.85 MM
SEC: $68.75 MM
Big 12: $31.7 MM
ACC: $17.1 MM (Note: This is a 40% even split with the other 60% coming from success factors adopted by conference. Programs at the lower end are expected to make around $35MM).
What’s Next?
My belief is that most teams in the ACC will be around, or a little higher, than the Big 12 average. Also note those numbers don’t reflect other revenue shared, such as NCAA Tournament and in-conference sponsorships and championships. But the chasm is clear. While there is a memorandum of understanding that the Big Ten and SEC can ultimately determine the playoff format, an MOU really isn’t necessary when you look at the money. Those two conferences control the game. If they decide they want to call the play on the playoff, they’re going to do it.
It’s why Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire said this recently.
The X post is a bit misleading. McGuire didn’t say that the G-6 should have its own playoff. What he said was that if you’re going to evaluate the G-6 on the same criteria then their scheduling must change. In other words, they need more power conference games, which they’re not getting. Then, he said that “he could see at some point” a multi-tiered playoff. He didn’t say he wanted it. That’s a big difference.
He said what most of us are thinking — that we’re heading toward that type of a playoff. I’ve been thinking it for a while now. On its face, it seems inevitable. But what if it’s not? How do you fight that? And, why fight it? If you’re the Big 12, there’s a good reason. Self-preservation.
Let’s say the game goes the way most of us are thinking, that we end up with some sort of “super league” playoff. The Big Ten and the SEC would drive that. That’s 34 teams. That’s basically the size of the NFL. But it’s not going to be enough for television partners. They’ll want more games, which means they’ll need more members.
Include the ACC and the Big 12, along with Notre Dame, and that’s 34 more teams for 68 overall. The assumption has always been that the ACC and the Big 12 would just fold into it. But, what if the Big Ten and the SEC have other ideas?
Utah practically begged to get into the Big Ten to no avail. You think five years from now the conference is going to want the Utes then? What about BYU? The rest of the four corners schools? Texas Tech has too much money to compete for their taste. Houston? What about UCF or West Virginia?
Big 12 Problems?
The point is that I don’t see the Big Ten and SEC wanting ALL of those schools. They only want the best brands. There’s a reason why the SEC gobbled up ONLY Oklahoma and Texas. There’s a reason the Big Ten ONLY took Oregon and Washington after the Pac-12 imploded. What if the number of teams for this new league is, say, 48? Well, then the Big 12 and the ACC have a huge problem.
If Yormark is only interested in carrying his conference into this sort of playoff, then that desire will become clear. But it will also be a “shame on you” moment for a commissioner that has generally been good for the league and the sport. He wants a 16-team playoff where it is earned on the field, the so-called 5+11 model. He doesn’t want guaranteed multi-bids to conferences. That’s the correct path. So far, he’s done a good job of playing the game to ensure his league’s seat at the table. But, at some point, that seat could be in danger. Then what does he do?
How does a commissioner like Yormark, and a group of athletic directors like Dickey, fight that sort of inevitability? Dickey and other athletic directors want to work with them. But, there’s a Thanos-like quality to all of this. The Big Ten, the SEC and their TV partners have become far too powerful, and I don’t think they’re interested in bending or making it fair. So, what’s left?
I honestly don’t know. I told Dickey on X that there are far too many smart people in the game to not find a real solution to this. He agreed. But the smart people are being drowned out by the money and this disingenuous analysts who are pushing an agenda the majority of college football fans don’t agree with.
It’s equal parts the most exciting time and most depressing time to be a college football fan. The on-field product has never been better. The off-field drama threatens to swallow what we love whole, make it fundamentally different and lock deserving teams out of a legitimate shot at a playoff.
And that includes the Big 12. Remember — when Texas and Oklahoma decided to leave everyone shopped. EVERYONE. Former commissioner Bob Bowlsby pitched a partnership with the Pac-12, one that in hindsight the Pac-12 should have taken. If presented membership in the Big Ten, a school like Kansas would have jumped.
I don’t have the solution, but I know this requires Yormark’s attention. Assuming one has a seat at the table can only lead to losing it.
