Texas Tech is getting ready to take on the Oregon Ducks in the Orange Bowl today, with kickoff set for 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN. The No. 4 Red Raiders went 12-1 in the Big 12 this season, winning the conference, while the Ducks are 12-1, fresh off a win over James Madison in the CFP first round, and are currently ranked No. 5 in the country.
The Ducks opened as 2.5-point favorites coming into the game, with the over-under set at 52.5 total points. The line flipped twice, with Texas Tech becoming the favorite briefly, before moving back to Oregon, who is back to being a 2.5-point favorite, with the over-under down to 50.5 total points.
This is Texas Tech’s first trip to the College Football Playoff, while Oregon was the No. 1 seed last year, but lost in the quarterfinals round to No. 8 Ohio State. Here are two key players to watch in this game, followed by the top storylines for each team, and a prediction from Heartland College Sports.
Related: Big 12 Bowl Games 2025–26: Schedule, Spreads, Results & Scores
Two Key Players to Watch
Behren Morton, Texas Tech Quarterback
Morton led the Texas Tech offense to the No. 3 pass offense in the Big 12, behind only TCU and Baylor. He’s been dealing with a lower-leg injury for the second half of the season, but has had a few weeks to try and improve. He recently said he was 70% for the Big 12 Championship game and is now at about 85%. And Morton is key to open up the passing game to get the running game going with Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams. Cameron Dickey finished third in the Big 12 with 1,095 rushing yards, along with a Big 12-best 14 rushing touchdowns. His 84.2 yards per game ranked 4th in the league. He combined for a 1-2 punch with J’Koby Williams, who finished with 787 rushing yards on the season and six touchdowns. Texas Tech finished second in the Big 12 to Utah with 190.9 rushing yards per game. But a healthy Morton makes this offense work. That’s where Morton comes in.
Noah Whittington/Jordon Davison, Oregon Runnings Backs
These two create the 1-2 punch in the backfield that has led Oregon to its No. 5 ranking. Whittington rushed for 798 yards this season, including an impressive 6.9 yards per carry, and six touchdowns. Add in Davison’s 625 rushing yards and this is how you end up with the Big Ten’s No. 2 running game in the Big 12 with 217 yards per game, trailing only Indiana, but the top running game in the Big 12 based on yards per carry at 5.9.
Top Storylines
Can Texas Tech Slow Down the Oregon Rushing Game?
This is really what this game comes down to. Texas Tech’s No. 1 rush defense in the Big 12 (68.5 YPG allowed) going up against Oregon’s rushing attack that was No. 2 in the Big Ten at over 217 YPG. Whoever wins this battle likely wins the game.
Is Dante Moore Asked to Step Up?
In the one game that Oregon lost vs. Indiana, Moore threw 34 passes, the second-most he threw all season. He only threw more passes in a win over Penn State, but that game had two overtimes. Oregon doesn’t want, or typically need, Moore to throw more than 30 times a game to win. It means they’re running game is doing its thing. If Moore needs to win the game for Oregon, that’s good for Texas Tech.
Prediction: Texas Tech 31, Oregon 24
Both teams are in the Top 10 in scoring defense. Texas Tech is No. 2 giving up 11.3 points per game, while Oregon is allowing 16.6 points per game, which ranks No. 8 in the country. But Tech’s has been much more consistent, only giving up more than 20 points one time this season (26 in a loss to Arizona State). Also, we’ll see Texas Tech rushing game outperform Oregon’s in this game, just like we saw in their loss to Indiana, when the Hoosiers went for over 100 yards, while Oregon finished the game with 81. I see a fairly evenly matched game, but Texas Tech’s defense makes a play, like Indiana’s did with two fourth quarter interceptions vs. Dante Moore to seal the victory.
