No. 17 Arizona will face the SMU Mustangs in the Holiday Bowl this Friday evening with kickoff set for 7:00 p.m. CT on ESPN. The Wildcats went 9-3 in the Big 12 this season, while SMU finished off an 8-4 campaign in the ACC.
The Wildcats opened up 1.5-point favorites, with the over-under opening at 51.5 total points. However, as the game as inched closer, the line has flipped. SMU is now a 1.5-point favorite over Arizona, with the over-under moving up to 52 total points in some sports books.
Here are two key players to watch in this game, followed by the top storylines for each team, and a prediction from Heartland College Sports.
Related: Big 12 Bowl Games 2025–26: Schedule, Spreads, Results & Scores
Two Key Players to Watch
Kevin Jennings, SMU Quarterback
In today’s era of college football, it’s very rare that you see two elite quarterbacks with eligibility and plans to return to their respective programs the following season face off in a bowl game. That is the case for the Holiday Bowl game between SMU and Arizona, with Kevin Jennings and Noah Fifita squaring off. Jennings is primed to be one of the nation’s best signal callers in 2026 and is fresh off an incredible regular season this fall with more than 3,300 passing yards and 26 scores through the air.
Noah Fifita, Arizona QB
The other side of the elite quarterback matchup is Arizona’s Noah Fifita. The Huntington Beach, California, native nearly eclipsed the 3000-yard mark through the air with an incredible touchdown-to-interception ratio of 26-5. In his junior season, Fifita led the Wildcats to one of the Big 12’s best passing attacks, averaging 254.4 yards per contest.
Top Storylines
Strength on Strength
For SMU, it’s going to be an absolute battle on offense, clashing with Arizona’s defense. One specific aspect to look for is how the Mustangs fare against the best passing defense in the Big 12, a group that surrenders just 155.9 yards per game. That number is good for the fourth-fewest in the country, behind Ohio State, Nebraska, and Fresno State. Thankfully for SMU, they happen to be the ACC’s best passing team with 283.5 yards per game through the air. Brace yourself for an awesome clash in that aspect.
Win Your Matchups
As previously stated, when breaking down SMU’s offense vs. Arizona’s defense, it all comes down to matchups. One statistic from the regular season that stands out about this game is just how bad SMU’s defense has been against the pass. They have the ACC’s second-worst passing defense, allowing 284.7 yards per game, and that should have Noah Fifita chomping at the bit to take the field. The Wildcats have the Big 12’s fourth-best passing attack, a unit that averages 254.4 yards per game.
Prediction: Arizona 37, SMU 35
Bowl games can be tough to predict due to immense amounts of opt-outs, the transfer portal, and key injuries, but in all honesty, this is about as routine a game as you’ll see between Arizona and SMU. Both star quarterbacks are active, as well as the bulk of production at skill positions, and the defenses remain stingy. The 1.5-line feels really, really accurate here, and I see both teams scoring a ton of points. Due to the advantage Arizona should have through the air, give me the Wildcats, with Noah Fifita posting a statement game.
