The Big 12 men lift the lid on the 2025-26 conference season on Friday night when West Virginia visits undefeated Iowa State.
The Mountaineers are saying, “Geez, thanks for the undefeated opponent.”
Every Big 12 team is over .500 going into league action. Arizona, the nation’s No. 1 team, and Iowa State are the only remaining undefeated teams. This is also a marked contrast from non-conference last year. Going into conference play a year ago, the only two teams with 10 or more wins in non-conference were Cincinnati and Iowa State.
The Cyclones went dancing. The Bearcats did not. That’s what this piece is about — which teams are heading to the NCAA Tournament based on the non-conference data to this point.
For the past few years, I’ve been tracking trends in Big 12 basketball. That research has led me to collect data over the last eight seasons, dating back to 2015-16. That doesn’t include 2019-20, when there was no NCAA Tournament, or the 2020-21 season due to the COVID restrictions. The idea was to see if there was a formula to making the postseason. And there is.
All you have to do is count to 20, as in wins, before the Big 12 Tournament. Every team that won 20 or more games by the Big 12 Tournament in the sample made the postseason, with all but one going to the NCAA Tournament.
It starts with non-conference. Most Big 12 teams played 12 or 13 games before league play and that helps. Racking up 10 or more wins in non-con is part of how you get to 20 wins by Kansas City. Eleven Big 12 teams have 10 or more wins before league play begins. But it’s unlikely that all of them will reach 20 wins or the NCAA Tournament because the Big 12 is the most rigorous conference in basketball.
After several years of gathering this data and watching the conference, I can make this prediction with near-certainty — 10 Big 12 men’s teams will make the NCAA Tournament. The rest will likely land in the College Basketball Crown, where the Big 12 is committed to sending four teams, and the NIT.
Want to know who? Read on, and as we go along, I have all kinds of outliers, fun facts and methodologies to either impress you or scare you.
And as we move through the 2025-26 Big 12 basketball season, don’t hesitate to check the latest NCAA basketball odds.
Arizona — 13-0
Really good news for Arizona, and Iowa State for that matter. Every Big 12 team that has gone undefeated in non-conference in the sample has made the NCAA Tournament. That includes Iowa State in 2021-22, which went 12-0 in non-conference, 7-11 in league play and was 19-12 going into the Big 12 Tournament. The Cyclones were the outlier here. The other teams all won 20 or more games by Kansas City.
Arizona is 5-0 against ranked teams and power conference teams entering league play.
NCAA Tournament: Yes
Arizona State — 9-4
Here’s where things start to get interesting. Arizona State looks better this year, but they fall into a category I call “Men U10,” or fewer than 10 wins in non-conference going into league action. For ASU to reach the 20-win plateau before Kansas City, it must win 11 league games.
In the eight-year sample, 20 teams have failed to win 10 games before conference and still made the postseason. Eleven of them went to the NCAA Tournament. The average number of non-con wins for those teams was 8.27. In fact, all but one won eight or nine games. That was Arizona last year, which won just six non-conference games but went 14- 6 in Big 12 play to get to 20 wins before KC.
Arizona State won nine games in non-con last season. The Sun Devils went 0-2 against ranked teams and 0-2 against power league teams. This year, Arizona State is 0-1 and 2-3, respectively. Wins against power conference teams are not indicative of making the NCAA Tournament. Arizona did it with an 0-5 record against power league teams a year ago.
The average conference record for those 11 teams that made the NCAA Tournament was 12.1 wins. That would make Arizona State at minimum a Top 8 team in the conference. An NCAA Tournament berth isn’t out of the question, but the data doesn’t love the Sun Devils. It just likes them.
NCAA Tournament: No
Baylor — 10-2
Baylor’s win total has a rock-solid history. In the eight-year sample the Bears have won 10 or more non-conference games six times. They have made the NCAA Tournament five of those times and on each occasion won at least 10 league games. A 10-8 league record would get them to 20 wins by Kansas City. Baylor has also made the NCAA Tournament twice with fewer than 10 non-conference wins.
The outlier? The 2017-18 season. Baylor went 10-2 in non-con, 8-10 in Big 12 play, was 18-14 going into the Big 12 Tournament and ended up in the NIT. Baylor has the data to back up an NCAA Tournament bid but should be wary of their own outlier.
NCAA Tournament: Yes
BYU — 12-1
The Cougars are one of five Big 12 teams with 12 or more non-conference wins. That’s a good omen. Of the 37 teams that have double-digit wins in non-conference, 36 have made the NCAA Tournament.
The outlier? The 2023-24 Oklahoma Sooners. OU went 12-1 in non-conference but muddied the waters with an 8-10 Big 12 slate that put them on the NCAA Tournament bubble, even with 20 wins going into Kansas City. Teams with losing records in Big 12 action have made the NCAA Tournament before. But that was a fall from grace that the NCAA Tournament committee couldn’t abide. But that’s the only outlier.
NCAA Tournament: Yes
Cincinnati — 8-5
The Bearcats are right on the average number of non-conference wins that can make the NCAA Tournament. What keeps a team out of the postseason, based on a Big 12 Conference record? That average is 5.6 wins. If the Bearcats hit that average, they’re not going nowhere.
Cincinnati was 0-1 against the Top 25 and 0-4 against power league teams. While not indicative of making or not making the NCAA Tournament, it’s worth noting.
NCAA Tournament: No
Colorado — 10-3
Colorado meets the first criteria — 10 wins before non-conference. But what’s the split for those teams that hit exactly 10 wins in non-con, meaning they need 10 in Big 12 play to reach 20 before Kansas City?
That average is 9.1 wins in conference. Of those 20 teams that won exactly 10 games, 12 made the NCAA Tournament. Five made another postseason. The other three didn’t play in any postseason.
The work ahead for Colorado is clear. Nine wins gives them a clear shot, 10 seems like a practical guarantee. But it’s a thin needle to thread in this conference and a team that was the No. 16 seed in last year’s Big 12 Tournament. It’s more possible the Buffs join the Sooners as an outlier.
NCAA Tournament: No
Houston — 12-1
We’ve already noted the data for teams that win 10 or more games in non-conference, the teams that have won exactly 12 games and the outlier in Oklahoma. The Cougars are entering their third Big 12 season and have lost four regular-season league games in that span, including last year’s 19-1 record. We’re going to look back on that in five years and realize who good that team really was.
The data supports another Houston NCAA Tournament bid. One thing to note, especially for the “Houston has taken a step back crowd.” The Cougars are 2-1 against the Top 25 and 5-1 against power league teams. That’s not why I’m predicting they’ll make the NCAA Tournament. I’m just saying they are not the team you want to see in March.
NCAA Tournament: Yes
Iowa State — 13-0
The data supports the Cyclones getting into the NCAA Tournament, as they are undefeated going into their game with West Virginia on Friday. At this rate one must consider that the Cyclones could end up with a No. 1 seed in March Madness. Same goes for Arizona.
The “Iowa State doesn’t play a hard schedule” crowd is having a rough go of it this season. Iowa State is 2-0 against the Top 25 and 6-0 against power league teams. The only other team in the conference with an undefeated Top 25 ledger (minimum two games) and an undefeated power league ledger is Arizona.
NCAA Tournament: Yes
Kansas — 10-3
Kansas has had a curious season. Darryn Peterson has been great — when he plays — and it’s not certain when he’ll play again. The progress of Tre White and Melvin Council Jr. has been great to watch. The Jayhawks have played a brutal schedule. They’re 1-3 against the Top 25 and have a 5-3 record against power league teams. No Big 12 team has played more power league teams than Kansas.
Kansas has been to the NCAA Tournament in each year of the sample. In all but one year of the sample the Jayhawks won 10 or more games in non-conference. The outlier was last season when they went 9-2. Kansas went 11-9 in league play, won 20 before KC and reached the NCAA Tournament. The numbers and trends are in their favor.
NCAA Tournament: Yes
Kansas State — 9-4
Speaking of brutal schedules, the Wildcats are only 0-1 against Top 25 teams but are 3-3 against power league teams. That ties Iowa State for the second-most games against power league teams.
The Wildcats are right on the edge as we’ve noted from the data. Nine non-conference wins means the Wildcats realistically need 11 wins in Big 12 action before Kansas City.
Nine teams have won exactly nine non-conference games and made some kind of postseason. The ones that made the NCAAs all had .500 or better records in Big 12 action. The data is split on K-State, but it leans toward the Wildcats falling just short.
NCAA Tournament: No
Oklahoma State — 12-1
The Cowboys are one of two teams I was most interested in based on the data. With 12 non-conference wins, OSU should be looking straight ahead to the NCAA Tournament. While the Cowboys haven’t played a Top 25 teams, they are 2-1 against power league teams. So, I looked at teams with 12 or more wins that didn’t play a ranked team in non-conference to get a sense of whether that makes a difference.
The data is limited. Just one 12-win team failed to play a Top 25 team in non-conference in the sample. That was BYU two seasons ago. The Cougars went 12-1 in non-conference, 10-8 in league action and were 22-9 before Kansas City. BYU went 2-1 against power league teams that season.
The data supports the Cowboys ending their NCAA Tournament drought.
NCAA Tournament: Yes
TCU — 10-3
TCU has been the most up-and-down team among those with 10 wins. The Horned Frogs have a garish home loss to New Orleans, a close loss at home to Top 10 Michigan, a huge neutral site win over defending national champion Florida and another close loss at home to Notre Dame. Also, they nearly lost to another Southland Conference team at home before beating Incarnate Word. At face value they’re the conference’s biggest mystery as to who their conference slate will go.
Still, TCU has 10 wins and that puts them squarely in the conversation. The Horned Frogs are 1-1 against the Top 25 and 2-2 against power league teams. This is the sixth time in the eight-year sample that the Horned Frogs have had 10 or more wins before conference. Four times they’ve made the NCAA Tournament. The other time it was the NIT. In those five seasons, they finished 9-9 in Big 12 play three times, 8-10 once and 7-11 once. The data suggests the Horned Frogs must win nine games by Kansas City to have a chance. The data leans their way.
NCAA Tournament: Yes
Texas Tech — 10-3
Texas Tech falls into that 10-win category I wrote about with Colorado. The Red Raiders need 10 wins in Big 12 play to essentially lock up a spot. In the eight-year sample, Texas Tech has failed to win at least nine league games twice. The first time was in 2016-17 (6-12) and the other was 2022-23 (5-13). Tech missed the postseason entirely both years. When Tech wins 10 or more league games in this scenario, it goes to the NCAA Tournament. The data is in Tech’s favor.
NCAA Tournament: Yes
UCF — 11-1
Like Oklahoma State, UCF’s case was super interesting to me. This is the first time the Knights have won 10 or more games in non-conference since joining the Big 12. In the previous two seasons they won nine non-conference games. In 2023-24 the Knights went to the NIT. Last year, they went to the CBC and lost in the final.
The Knights also share something in common with OSU — no games against ranked teams. Plus, the Knights are 2-1 against power league opponents. The only difference is OSU’s extra win.
The data doesn’t suggest that extra win makes that much of a difference. But the conference record certainly does. I sampled 27 teams that won exactly 11 games in non-conference. Of the 20 that made the NCAA Tournament, all but three won 10 league games. The other three won nine league games. The seven that made some other postseasons were all under .500 in league action.
The data leans toward UCF making its first March Madness appearance as a Big 12 team. But a .500 slate in Big 12 play is essential.
NCAA Tournament: Yes
Utah — 8-5
Eight wins in non-conference is the absolute floor for getting to the NCAA Tournament, aside from the Arizona outlier. Utah has the same issues as Cincinnati. While not statistically significant, Utah hasn’t played a Top 25 teams and is 1-3 against power league teams. It’s going to be a rough go for the Utes.
NCAA Tournament: No
West Virginia — 9-4
WVU is in slightly better shape. A .500 conference slate would get them to 18 wins before Kansas City and give them an outside chance. The data for nine-win teams supports the need for the Mountaineers to need to finish over .500 in league play to have a real chance at the NCAA Tournament before the Big 12 Tournament begins.
Note last year. WVU was 9-2 before Big 12 play, 10-10 in Big 12 action, won 19 games before KC and saw its NCAA Tournament bubble burst on Selection Sunday. All of WVU’s NCAA Tournament berths in the sample have come after winning 10 or more games in non-conference.
NCAA Tournament: No
