There’s a moment late in Texas Tech’s 34-7 destruction of BYU in the Big 12 Championship Game—third quarter, about three and a half minutes left—when Ben Roberts reaches up, tips Bear Bachmeier’s pass, then secures the interception like it’s choreographed. He returns it to the 11-yard line. Next play, Cameron Dickey walks into the end zone untouched, and suddenly it’s 21-7, and the Red Raiders are headed to the College Football Playoff with a first-round bye nearly locked up.
But here’s the thing scouts will remember most from that December night in Arlington: David Bailey collapsing the pocket all game long, Rodriguez flying around for 13 tackles, and a Texas Tech defense forcing four turnovers without giving the ball away once. That performance didn’t just win a championship. It launched NFL draft stock into another stratosphere.
Right now, all of the attention on the NFL is centered on the race toward Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara, California. The latest NFL Super Bowl odds at Bovada make the Seattle Seahawks the -230 favorites to hoist the Lombardi at Levi’s Stadium. But once the championship has finally been decided, all attention will then turn toward April’s draft. Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza is considered the overwhelming frontrunner to be selected first overall, but what of the Big 12 contingent?
Plenty of the conference’s stars are expected to be selected in the upcoming draft. But which of them has top billing and is expected to hear their name called in the first round? Let’s take a look.
David Bailey
81 quarterback pressures, 15 sacks, 21.6 percent pass rush win rate. Those are the numbers that Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey posted in his side’s romp to the Big 12 crown in 2025, the best in the entire FBS by a country mile. But while he is indeed a beast of a pass rusher, there is always a kicker.
The Red Raider is essentially a zero against the run. His pad level is inconsistent, he hesitates at the point of attack, and bigger tackles who get their hands on him first can move him. He needs counters when his initial rush gets stalled, and his functional strength isn’t where it needs to be yet. For a potential top-five pick, those are real concerns.
So why is Arizona—sitting at pick three after a brutal 3-14 season—reportedly interested? Desperation for pass rush, for one. The Cardinals run a 3-4 front that would let Bailey pin his ears back as a designated edge rusher, which is exactly what he is. In today’s NFL, quarterback pressure trumps run defense for edge players, especially when you can generate it at Bailey’s rate. The Cardinals are also expected to cut ties with former Heisman winner Kyler Murray, but with Mendoza the only real standout QB in the entire class, Bailey could well be selected as high as number three.
Of course, there’s a very real chance that they head in an opposite direction, and if they do, then Bailey will fall down the board. Cincinnati at tenth overall may also be interested, especially as their star pass rusher, Trey Hendrickson, is poised to leave Paycor Stadium in the coming weeks.
Jordyn Tyson
Jordyn Tyson’s story is all about playing through pain and what it cost him. He caught 10 passes for 105 yards and a touchdown against Texas Tech in October, then felt his right hamstring grab. He came out briefly, went back in two plays later for a two-yard touchdown catch, then made a crucial 33-yard grab on fourth down to set up the game-winner. The young wideout played the whole second half on a bum hamstring because that’s who he is—fiercely competitive to the point where his coach, Kenny Dillingham, literally said he had to “shield him from himself.”
That injury cost him three games. In a draft year, when every snap is tape and every game is millions, missing three games is brutal. But here’s what makes Tyson special: even in limited action, he still posted 61 catches for 711 yards and eight touchdowns while earning AP All-American honors. His 89.0 PFF grade against man coverage showcases his route running to a tee, while he also hauled in a whopping 98.4% of catchable targets, a frankly absurd number.
Some analysts call him the top receiver in this class, and it’s not hard to see why. He’s not the fastest guy or the biggest—he’s just consistently open, with exceptional body control for acrobatic catches and hands you can trust. Cleveland reportedly wants him at pick six in some mocks, which makes perfect sense. The Browns are desperate for a receiver who can actually catch, someone who won’t disappear for quarters at a time. Tyson’s that guy, and if he can build up an understanding with Shedeur Sanders in Ohio, there’s a very real chance the Browns will fight their way up a weak-looking AFC North in 2026.
Spencer Fano
Four of Spencer Fano’s uncles played in the NFL; that’s the Polynesian pedigree that this Utah junior carries, and the athletic lineage shows. At 6-foot-6 and 308 pounds, he’s lean for a franchise left tackle, which is where the evaluation gets complicated. He started 11 games at left tackle as a freshman in 2023, earned second-team AP All-American honors, then flipped to right tackle for the next two seasons. Does the switch signal he’s better suited for the right side, or was it scheme-specific? NFL brass will have to figure that out at the combine and beyond.
What’s undeniable, though, is his movement. Fano’s got explosive foot speed and lateral quickness that let him mirror edge rushers in space. He’s fluid getting to the second level, exceptional in outside zone schemes where he can reach defenders and climb to linebackers. He allowed one sack and 14 combined pressures in 2024, then zero sacks and just five pressures in 2025. It’s the kind of protection that Joe Burrow has been desperate for in Cincinnati for years.
The concern is power. Can a 308-pound tackle anchor against NFL bull rushes? Can he generate consistent movement in the run game against 320-pound defensive linemen? His inside hand technique needs refinement, and there are occasional discipline issues downfield on play-action where he pushes the legal limits. These aren’t small questions when you’re evaluating a potential first-round investment.
