Every Big 12 men’s basketball team has played at least nine games, meaning everyone is at the halfway point of the slate.
Only one team — Arizona — is still undefeated. In fact, the Wildcats will stay that way until at least this weekend, as they’re on their bye week. The No. 1 team in the country, undefeated overall and in conference play, is on a break? Like the Wildcats need it.
Meanwhile, the rest of the Big 12 is slugging away at one another like usual.
The Big 6 Gap is Real
Houston’s 79-55 win over UCF on Wednesday proved why there is a gap between the Top 6 teams in the Big 12 and the Knights, especially when UCF is on the road.
UCF was No. 37 in NCAA NET going into the game and had a 4-4 record in Quad 1 games. The NCAA Tournament committee will look highly on that. The Knights also have two ranked wins in Big 12 play over Kansas and Texas Tech. But both have been at home. The Knights’ one key road win was at Texas A&M in November, a team that is just outside the Top 25.
In Big 12 play the Knights are 2-3 on the road. That includes losses at Oklahoma State, Iowa State and now Houston.
UCF has the goods to reach the NCAA Tournament. But how far it goes in that tournament will be defined, in part, in how well it performs on its remaining road games and at the Big 12 Tournament. It’s the best way for the Knights to battle-test themselves for March — and to prove its closer to the Big 6 than they look.
Getting An Eighth into the Madness
If you believe in ESPN Bracketology, the Big 12 has seven teams that appear safe in the NCAA Tournament. From there, the rest of the conference is on the outside looking in. TCU is the next closest, sitting on the “next four out,” which makes them No. 74 in the 68-team field.
TCU, Oklahoma State and West Virginia are the three most likely Big 12 teams to crash the party. To do it, each needs to get to at least 20 wins by the Big 12 Tournament. Why? I outlined this in early January before the start of Big 12 play:
Every team that won 20 or more games by the Big 12 Tournament in the sample made the postseason, with all but one going to the NCAA Tournament. That’s data going back to the 2015-16 season.
The key for these three teams — and any other Big 12 team that wants a shot — is to get to 20 by Kansas City. That means less concentration on beating the ranked teams and more concentration on just winning. If the team doesn’t have a number next to its name, that a game those teams need to win.
Right now? It’s going to be tight with roughly half of the Big 12 season remaining. That’s why Oklahoma State’s 99-92 win over BYU was huge for the Cowboys. It moved them to 16 wins and gave them their first Quad 1 win of the season.
The Four-Team Women’s Race
We have a little more parity than expected in the Big 12 women’s race with roughly one-third of the season left. TCU and Baylor are tied for first place at 9-2. West Virginia outlasted Colorado on Wednesday to improve to 9-3. Texas Tech is 8-3. Oklahoma State isn’t out of it. The Cowgirls are 7-4, but Wednesday’s loss to Arizona State hurt.
So, what’s left? Plenty of meaningful games. Here’s a glimpse of the path left for the top four teams when it comes to the Big 12 regular season title:
Feb. 12: TCU at Baylor
Feb. 15: West Virginia at TCU
Feb. 18: Baylor at Texas Tech
March 1: Baylor at TCU
You’d like a bit more head-to-head down the stretch. But if Baylor wins the regular-season title, it will be because it was able to run a gauntlet of four ranked games in the final month.
