The UCF Knights travel to play the No. 8 Houston Cougars on Wednesday night in a Big 12 showdown on FOX Sports 1. UCF is fresh off an upset of Texas Tech on Saturday, while Houston handled Cincinnati. Here’s a preview, prediction, key storylines and updated odds to keep an eye on in this match up as we get set for the game tonight in Houston, Texas.
UCF vs. Houston Basketball Odds
Houston opened up as a 14-point favorite, with an over/under of 150.5 total points. As of Monday late morning, the Cougars were up to 16.5-point favorites, with an over/under coming down to 147.5.
Key Storyline: Who Wins the Tempo?
UCF needs this game to be played up-tempo. They want this game in the 75-85 point per team range. That’s not Houston basketball. Kelvin Sampson wants to grind you down and crush you with his defense, and second-chance points off of offense rebounds, where they rank first in the Big 12.
Match Up to Watch: Houston vs. UCF’s Three Ball
UCF doesn’t shoot at lot of three pointers, but when they do shoot them, they’re efficient. UCF is second in the Big 12 behind Iowa State, hitting 38.6% of their three pointers. That despite being 13th in the Big 12 in three pointers attempted. They pick and choose their spots, like on Saturday vs. Texas Tech, when they were 6-13. Houston has the third-best three-point defense in the league. Which sides gives?
Prediction: Houston 72, UCF 62
Houston is home in this game, and where they thrive is on turnover margin, ranking No. 1 in the Big 12. UCF has struggled, at times, in this category, ranking No. 11 in the league this season. Granted, they did a better job, and won the turnover margin on Saturday vs. Texas Tech (6 to 13), which helped propel their win. However, winning at Houston is a different beast. I’m rolling with the Cougars to get a comfortable win at home, as UCF doesn’t get the pace in this game that they need to win, with Houston’s back-court defense and depth causing problems for Themus Fulks and Riley Kugel, leading to a comfortable Houston victory.
