My travels took me to Tucson on Saturday for a doubleheader. Yes, I missed ESPN College Gameday. But I still saw two great games, and now it’s time to talk Big 12 Basketball Power Rankings.
First, the Arizona State women beat Arizona in overtime. That was a compelling game. But the Arizona and Texas Tech men said, “Hold my beer.” They played an incredible overtime contest that Texas Tech won, sending Arizona to its second straight loss.
Wildcats coach Tommy Lloyd said after the game that he knew he wasn’t going to get through this season unscathed. And there’s nothing that’s happened in the last week that should convince anyone that Arizona can’t win a national championship.
But the reality is there are a quintet of national championship contenders in this league and many of them are going to play each other the next three weeks, including a Big Monday match up between Houston and Iowa State. What that means for me is absolute chaos in my power rankings.
With less than a month before we head to Kansas City, we may be ready to watch the best stretch run of Big 12 basketball in quite some time.
Here are this week’s power rankings.
Tier 1 Big 12 Basketball Power Rankings
1. Houston (23-2, 11-1) (Last Ranking: 2)
2. Texas Tech (19-6, 9-3) (Last Ranking: 5)
3. Arizona (23-2, 10-2) (Last Ranking: 1)
4. Kansas (19-6, 9-3) (Last Ranking: 3)
5. Iowa State (22-3, 9-3) (Last Ranking: 4)
6. BYU (19-6, 7-5) (Last Ranking: 6)
When I first started looking at this week’s power ratings, I honestly didn’t know what to do with the first tier. There were so many head-to-head matchups this week and so many results that I wasn’t expecting that I took a step back and looked at everyone’s head-to-head record in aggregate against one another:
Kansas: 3-1
Texas Tech: 3-2
Houston: 2-1
Iowa State: 1-1
Arizona: 1-2
BYU: 0-4
I don’t think you can base the power rankings off this because it’s more about the moment than the body of work. But it’s clear that Arizona isn’t the only school with a back-loaded schedule. Iowa State has a murderous schedule down the stretch with at least three ranked teams in the final three weeks. We’ll see where BYU is in Monday’s poll. About the only thing that was clear was that BYU should be No. 6, especially after learning Richie Saunders was out for the season with a torn ACL. Awful news for BYU and awful news for Big 12 basketball.
Arizona had to drop. The question was how far? Had the Wildcats beaten Texas Tech on Saturday I likely would have only dropped them one spot. But after two close losses, the third spot seems appropriate. Houston moves up and now has the conference’s longest winning streak while Texas Tech slides up to No. 2. The Red Raiders have some massive wins this season. But they also have a home loss to Kansas.
Iowa State and Kansas made my life difficult. Kansas beats Arizona at home and then went to Iowa State and laid an egg. But before the Cyclones got home, they lost a close game at TCU. I decided to leave them in the same order as a week ago, but they dropped one spot with the chaos above them.
I think two things are true. First, this is the hardest time I’ve had with power rankings since I started covering the league in 2017-18. This is also first time in that span that I can honestly say the league has five national title contenders. Houston, Texas Tech, Arizona, Kansas and Iowa State can all get there (and I’m starting to thing KU could do it without Darryn Peterson, though let’s not risk it). I no longer thing BYU can get there, but the Cougars stay on this tier because, even without Saunders, I think they’re better than the teams below them. But we’ll see starting this week.
Tier 2
7. TCU (16-9, 6-6) (Last Ranking: 10)
8. Cincinnati (14-12, 6-7) (Last Ranking: 11)
9. West Virginia (16-9, 7-5) (Last Ranking: 12)
10. UCF (17-7, 6-6) (Last Ranking: 8)
11. Oklahoma State (16-9, 4-8) (Last Ranking: 7)
12. Colorado (14-12, 4-9) (Last Ranking: 9)
Outside of the first tier, the two hottest teams in the Big 12 are the TCU Horned Frogs and the Cincinnati Bearcats. Both have won their last three games. The Horned Frogs are now inside the NCAA Tournament bubble per ESPN after their huge win over Iowa State and another win over Oklahoma State. Wins are important for TCU, no matter the quadrant.
If Wes Miller is coaching for his job in Cincinnati, the leadership may be inclined to give him one more year. Cincinnati has responded the past two weeks ever since Miller apologized to his fans heading to the locker room. At least he didn’t go to the “I’m embarrassed by my players” route that Colorado’s Tad Boyle went after they got beat by Texas Tech. The Buffs are now at the bottom of this tier.
I’m a little worried about UCF. The UCF Knights seem solidly in the tournament, but they’ve lost three straight games. They need to right the ship and get those three wins they need before the Big 12 Tournament, so they don’t have to sweat things out on selection Sunday. The good news — UCF has five unranked teams in its last six games.
Tier 3
13. Arizona State (13-12, 4-9) (Last Ranking: 14)
14. Baylor (13-12, 3-9) (Last Ranking: 13)
15. Kansas State (10-16, 1-11) (Last Ranking: 15)
16. Utah (9-16, 1-11) (Last Ranking: 16)
So why move Arizona State up one spot this week? Well, at least the Sun Devils won last week, beating Oklahoma State at home and handing the Cowboys a loss that they really needed as a win. Baylor just isn’t in a good spot and Scott Drew is going to have to go back to the drawing board after this campaign is complete.
Jerome Tang was embarrassed by his players’ performance at mid-week, made them practice at 6 a.m. twice and put two of his players in charge of their scout for the game against Houston. That didn’t work out either. The past week then cost Tang his job on Sunday. Meanwhile, Utah just keeps plugging along and losing games as the Utes have dropped seven straight games.
If you don’t beat any of the teams on this tier, especially if you’re trying to clinch an NCAA tournament berth, that’s an opportunity missed.
