There are four games left before the Big 12 women’s basketball tournament in Kansas City and the race down the stretch is shaping up to be a big one.
There are seven teams that have won at least 20 games this season, which should put all of them in the NCAA Tournament comfortably. In the last eight non-COVID influenced seasons I’ve tracked, no 20-win Big 12 team has been left out. That’s important for one team in the power rankings.
Meanwhile, TCU and Baylor appear pointed once again toward a clash to determine the Big 12 regular season championship. The Horned Frogs equalized the standings with a win over the Bears at mid-week and they have one more meeting to end the season. Guess where I’ll be?
Here are this week’s power rankings.
Big 12 Women’s Basketball Tier 1
1. TCU (23-4, 11-3) — (Last ranking: 4)
2. West Virginia (21-6, 11-4) — (Last ranking: 1)
3. Baylor (22-5, 11-3) — (Last ranking: 2)
4. Texas Tech (23-4, 10-4) — (Last ranking: 3)
TCU moves back up to the top spot and it’s not just because Olivia Miles and TCU went off on Baylor. The Horned Frogs beat West Virginia at home on Sunday, giving them a pair of wins over top tier teams.
I only dropped WVU one spot and I only dropped Baylor one spot. You lose to a top team in the conference there must be a ranking hit, but it doesn’t need to be a significant one. Tech also drops a spot after losing to Oklahoma State.
All four of these teams are comfortably in the NCAA Tournament field. The only question is seeding. TCU was a Top 16 seed in the NCAA’s preliminary seeding unveiled on Saturday, but the Horned Frogs were the only Big 12 team included.
Tier 2
5. Oklahoma State (21-7, 10-5) — (Last ranking: 7)
6. Colorado (18-8, 9-5) — (Last ranking: 5)
7. Iowa State (20-6, 8-6) — (Last ranking: 6)
8. Arizona State (21-6, 8-6) — (Last ranking: 9)
9. Utah (17-10, 8-7) — (Last ranking: 8)
Let’s start with Colorado, which might be the hottest team on the outside of Tier 1. The Buffs have won three straight which includes a win over Oklahoma State. CU only has one ranked team left — Texas Tech — and it’s possible Colorado could be sitting on 20 wins in Kansas City. If so, historically, the Buffs should go dancing. But, right now, they’re the First Team Out per ESPN’s Charlie Crème.
Oklahoma State and Iowa State are comfortably in the field, with the Cowgirls moving up after beating ranked Texas Tech and blowing out Utah on President’s Day. Arizona State is not solidly in the field, though. Even though the Sun Devils are over 20 wins, which historically means an NCAA Tournament bid, they’re the Second Team Out per Crème. Leaving ASU out would be unprecedented in the data I’ve collected. ASU has Iowa State, Houston, BYU and Texas Tech left. A split gets the Sun Devils to 23 wins. That should be enough, especially if one of them is over ISU or TTU.
Tier 3
10. Kansas (16-11, 6-9) — (Last ranking: 10)
11. Kansas State (14-13, 7-7) — (Last ranking: 11)
12. BYU (17-9, 6-8) — (Last ranking: 12)
No movement here. It’s worth nothing that KU is on the Next Four Out per Crème. The Jayhawks have also won three of their last four games and have Kansa State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State remaining. KU can’t get to 20 wins before Kansas City. But what if KU runs that table, gets to KC and wins a couple of games? That would make for an intriguing selection Sunday.
Tier 4
13. Cincinnati (9-17, 4-10) — (Last ranking: 13)
14. UCF (10-15, 2-12) — (Last ranking: 14)
15. Arizona (11-14, 2-12) — (Last ranking: 15)
16. Houston (7-18, 1-13) — (Last ranking: 16)
For the second week, no change here on the bottom tier. After seeing Arizona in person last weekend against Arizona State, I’m really encouraged by the direction the Wildcats are going late in the season under coach Becky Burke. I think it’s going to end up being a quality hire in the wake of Adia Barnes’ departure to SMU, where the Mustangs are enduring their own struggles at 9-17 overall and 2-12 in ACC action. Losing Mickayla Perdue for the rest of the season is a blow, though. It also ends her college career.
