With five games left in Big 12 Conference play, six men’s teams are comfortably in the NCAA Tournament field.
But what about that seventh bid? UCF has had it on lock-down for weeks. But, as we hit the home stretch, the Knights are sweating it out. Can they keep their bid? Or can another Big 12 team take it? Or, could two of them make it?
I took a deep dive into UCF, West Virginia, TCU and Oklahoma State and saw a race for one bid. As I looked at their schedules, their NCAA NET rankings and the quad opportunities ahead, it struck me that this is probably a last team standing scenario. The Big 12 backloaded its schedule to give February huge matchups, which means that these four teams don’t have many ranked teams left on their schedule.
It also has another unintended effect. The four teams play each other so much down the stretch there is potential for them to eliminate one another from tournament contention. But, there is a path for two teams of these teams to get in. History is a guide, as I’ll explain.
We’re going to talk a lot about NET ratings in this piece because it’s one of key tools the committee uses. For reference, here’s what the quadrants look like, per the NCAA:
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
Let’s break it down, starting with the UCF Knights.
UCF (18-7, 7-6)
Remaining Opponents: at Utah, at BYU, vs. Baylor, vs. Oklahoma State, at West Virginia
Remaining Net Opportunities: Quad 1 (BYU, WVU); Quad 2 (Baylor, Utah, OSU).
A few weeks ago, we were not talking UCF and the bubble. Now, we must consider it because the Knights have taken a downturn the past two weeks. UCF enters the weekend with a NET of 46, a 4-6 record in Quad 1 games and a 4-1 record in Quad 2 games. UCF claimed that fourth Quad 2 win over TCU on Wednesday night, which snapped a three-game losing streak.
UCF has chances to reinforce its case down the stretch. It also has history on its side. In the last eight non-COVID seasons, all but one Big 12 team that won at least 10 games in non-conference and reached 20 wins before the Big 12 Tournament has made the NCAA Tournament (36 out of 37 teams). Based on history, the Knights just need two wins to make it. A 3-2 finish should cement it, especially if the Knights can win both Quad 1 games.
West Virginia (16-10, 7-6)
Remaining Opponents: at TCU, at Oklahoma State, vs. BYU, at Kansas State, vs. UCF.
Remaining Net Opportunities: Quad 1 (TCU, OSU, BYU); Quad 2 (UCF, Kansas State).
West Virginia enters the weekend with a NET of 62, which is an eight-spot drop after the loss to Utah on Wednesday. It was West Virginia’s first Quad 3 loss. It’s the type of loss the NCAA Tournament committee doesn’t like and it’s about as poorly timed as it could be, considering the Mountaineers have big chances ahead of them.
WVU is 4-6 in Quad 1 games, and it has three Quad 1 games in a row starting with TCU on Saturday in Fort Worth. The Mountaineers are now in a position where I think they must win all three of those games to make a real case for the Tournament. Doing so would make them 7-6 in Quad 1 games. Two of those games are on the road. It’s a big ask.
If the Mountaineers go 4-1 down the stretch they’ll reach 20 wins before the Big 12 Tournament. That isn’t a guarantee for them to get in because WVU didn’t reach 10 wins in non-conference. After the Utah loss I think WVU doesn’t have any leeway now. That’s the mark the Mountaineers must hit, with a sweep of the Quad 1 games to enhance the credentials.
TCU (16-10, 6-7)
Remaining Opponents: vs. West Virginia, vs Arizona State, at Kansas State, at Texas Tech, vs. Cincinnati.
Remaining Net Opportunities: Quad 1 (TTU); Quad 2 (WVU, ASU, KSU, CIN).
TCU missed a shot at a Quad 1 win at UCF. The Horned Frogs’ credentials are all over the place. They’re 47 in NET, have a 4-7 Quad 1 record and a 2-1 Quad 2 record. But they also have one Quad 3 loss and one Quad 4 loss. Those are losses the committee heavily scrutinizes.
TCU is in the same pool as UCF — a team that won at least 10 games in non-conference. To all but guarantee themselves a berth, the Horned Frogs need to go 4-1 down the stretch. The most likely way to do that is to win all their Quad 2 opportunities. Three of them happen to be at home, with the only one at Kansas State. That’s possible.
TCU only has one Quad 1 chance left against Texas Tech. But, with the loss of JT Toppin, the Horned Frogs might have a puncher’s chance in Lubbock. I still wouldn’t take them in that game, though. That’s the best-case scenario — go 4-1 and take the loss to Texas Tech. TCU would have 20 wins, could pick up one more in Kansas City and, based on history, get a bid to the NCAA Tournament.
This is also, to me, the league’s best chance at an eighth bid, along with UCF.
Oklahoma State (16-10, 4-9)
Remaining Opponents: at Colorado, vs. West Virginia, at Cincinnati, at UCF, vs. Houston.
Remaining Net Opportunities: Quad 1 (HOU, CIN, UCF, COL); Quad 2 (WVU).
Oklahoma State had 12 wins in non-conference. So, based on history, the Cowboys only had to win eight league games to get to 20. The Cowboys can still get there, but they must go 4-1 down the stretch.
The Cowboys have a NET of 76 after the Kansas loss and a 1-7 record against Quad 1 teams. That’s the worst Quad 1 record of the four teams listed here. It’s almost disqualifying. But OSU has a card to play. The Cowboys have four Quad 1 chances ahead, and only one is against a ranked team (Houston).
If I’m building a path for OSU, I take the loss to Houston and win the rest. That’s three Quad 1 wins and one Quad 2 win. With a 9-0 combined record in Quad 3 and Quad 4 games, and a win or two in Kansas City, the Cowboys could sneak in. But that means getting hot at a time in which OSU has lost its last four games. No team on this list is in a worse spot.
