Predicting the Big 12 Women’s Basketball Tournament Seeding Scenarios with Three Games Left

By Matthew Postins

Posted on February 20, 2026 at 12:34 pm

The Big 12 women’s basketball season comes down to three more rounds of games. Those games will determine the final seeding for the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City, which begins on March 5.

There’s some clear competition when it comes to holding onto the byes. TCU leads the conference, but three teams are a game behind. Three times are tied for the final single bye and No. 8 seed.

In this piece we look at where each Big 12 team would be seeded if the tournament started today. In addition, we project a bit to see how seeds could change between now and the tournament.

Seeds 1-4 (Double Byes)

1. TCU (24-4, 12-3)

2. Texas Tech (24-4, 11-4)

3. West Virginia (21-6, 11-4)

4. Baylor (22-6, 11-4)

If TCU wins its three remaining games, the Horned Frogs will be the No. 1 seed in the tournament for the second straight year. It’s not a lock. The Horned Frogs must host Baylor to end the season. The result of that game could be crucial.

If Texas Tech wins out, the Lady Raiders will be the No. 2 seed. TTU has a 3-0 record against WVU and Baylor. So, a three-way tie puts it in the No. 2 spot. If, for some reason, the Lady Raiders and Horned Frogs end up in a two-way tie, Tech gets the No. 1 seed due to beating TCU earlier this season. the Lady Raiders hold all the cards in terms of tiebreakers.

Baylor lost to West Virginia earlier this season, so in a two-way or a three-way tie WVU gets the No. 3 seed. Just as Tech holds all the tiebreaker cards in the group, Baylor holds none.

All four teams control their own destiny. Assuming each win out, the TCU-Baylor game could determine if a team drops from a double bye to a single bye.

Seeds 5-8 (Single Byes)

5. Colorado (19-8, 10-5)

6. Oklahoma State (21-7, 10-5)

7. Iowa State (21-6, 9-6)

8. Arizona State (2-7, 8-7)

OSU and CU split their season series. The next tiebreaker is “winning percentage versus the team occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings.” Colorado beat TCU and Oklahoma State lost to TCU, so for now Colorado is the No. 5 seed. If TCU loses a game and CU wins out and the two end up tied, the Buffs could move into a double bye.

Arizona State is tied with Utah and Kansas State for eighth place. The Big 12 tiebreaker rules for a three-way tie is “results from the collective head-to-head competition during the regular season among the tied teams in a mini round-robin format, ranking the tied teams by winning percentage from highest to lowest will be used to determine the seeds.”

ASU has a 2-1 record against the pair, having swept Utah and losing to Kansas State. Kansas State is 1-1 and Utah is 1-2. So, for now, the Sun Devils get the last single bye.

Remaining Seeds

9. Kansas State (15-13, 8-7)

10. Utah (17-10, 8-7)

Let’s address this. Going explicitly by the language above, winning percentage ranks those three teams for seeding, so K-State would be the No. 9 seed. If I’m reading it wrong and it reverts to head-to-head after the three-way tie is broken, then these seeds flip.

11. Kansas (16-11, 6-9)

12. BYU (17-10, 6-9)

Kansas won their only meeting and gets the higher seed.

13. Cincinnati (10-17, 5-10)

14. UCF (10-16, 2-13)

15. Arizona (11-15, 2-13)

16. Houston (7-19, 1-14)

UCF gets the seed above Arizona due to winning the head-to-head matchup. Cincinnati beat BYU and lost to Kansas. So, it’s possible for the Bearcats to move up a seed or two down the stretch.

As of now, this should be how the Big 12 Tournament schedule would play out, based on the seeds above: