When JT Toppin went down with a torn ACL, the first reaction around Texas Tech was obvious. It’s a brutal loss, a season-shifting injury, and the end of an All-American type run.
The second reaction was more bracket-focused.
How would the NCAA Tournament selection committee handle it?
We got at least part of that answer this week.
NCAA COMMITTEE ON TEXAS TECH
According to comments from Sun Belt Commissioner Keith Gill, who also serves on the NCAA selection committee, Texas Tech had been sitting on the 3 line as of Wednesday. Once the committee learned the severity of Toppin’s injury, the Red Raiders were moved down to the 4 line.
That is not a massive drop, but it is a clear signal.
Before the injury, Texas Tech’s profile, with Toppin averaging 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game, looked like that of a protected seed. He ranked ninth nationally in scoring and sixth in rebounding, numbers that anchored the Red Raiders’ resume and game planning.
Without him, the committee is adjusting expectations.
Does moving from a 3 seed to a 4 seed dramatically change Texas Tech’s ceiling? Not really. Obviously, JT Toppin going down affects things, but as far as seeding goes, the crew is still in a strong position.
The committee is tasked with evaluating teams as they are entering the tournament, not as they were in January. Losing your best player, especially one producing at that level, matters. It does not erase wins already earned, but it reframes how sustainable that success looks moving forward.
For Texas Tech, the path is pretty clear.
If the Red Raiders want to climb back up, they will have to prove they can win without Toppin. And as black and white as that makes things look, they’ll also have some nuance in how they win. This is a very different situation from that of Florida State in football a few years back, when their star quarterback went down, but the committee did not give FSU its fair share, considering the product of how they won looked bad. Not only will Tech have to win, but they’ll have to win in style.
That is easier said than done when you are replacing a Top 10 scorer in the country. Texas Tech still controls its own fate, but from here on out, every result will be viewed through a different lens.
