The Big 12 men’s basketball season has three more games to go. Thanks to a back-loaded February, there is still plenty to be decided when it comes to the Big Tournament in Kansas City.
Come March, 16 teams will hit Kansas City, and one will emerge with the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. Seeding can be crucial. It can help ease the path to a title — or make it harder. This being the Big 12, most paths are going to be brutal.
In this piece we look at where each Big 12 team would be seeded if the tournament started today. In addition, we project a bit to see how seeds could change this weekend.
Seeds 1-4 (Double Byes)
1. Arizona (26-2, 13-1)
2. Kansas (21-7, 11-4)
3. Iowa State (24-4, 11-4)
4. Texas Tech (21-7, 11-4)
Let’s start with the seeds below Arizona. Kansas, Iowa State, Houston and Texas Tech all have the same 11-4 league record. The tie is broken by record against each other by winning percentage. Ugh. Math.
Kansas: 3-1 (.750)
Iowa State: 2-1 (.667)
Texas Tech: 1-2 (.333)
Houston: 1-3 (.250)
Remember — it’s winning percentage. So, for now, the seeds you see are correct. But so much can change.
This weekend, Kansas heads to Arizona and Iowa State hosts Texas Tech. Both are critical games. Iowa State also gets a crack at Arizona on Big Monday in Tucson. After Big Monday, we’ll know if Arizona has a shot at hanging onto the No. 1 seed. Imagine if the Wildcats lost to Kansas and Iowa State? And then the three win out? Well, I haven’t done all the math but I’m pretty sure Arizona won’t be the No. 1 seed at that point.
Houston falls to No. 5. But all is not lost. The Cougars have three games left, none against ranked teams. If Houston wins out and one of those 11-4 teams falters, well, Houston is back in the double bye. So, yes, these games matter a ton.
If you’re an Arizona fan, you want a win over Kansas and an Iowa State win over Texas Tech. Why? Tech has the tiebreaker over Arizona, and it sets up a Big Monday battle that would allow the Wildcats to clinch the No. 1 seed at home with a win. Even with a loss, Arizona would have a one-game cushion with one game left.
Seeds 5-8 (Single Byes)
5. Houston (23-5, 11-4)
6. UCF (20-7, 9-6)
7. BYU (20-8, 8-7)
8. TCU (18-10, 8-7)
Much cleaner — for now. BYU has the tiebreaker over TCU in head-to-head. Technically, UCF can play its way off this tier. But the Knights would have to win out. More importantly, two of the teams ahead of them would have to lose out. Those teams would have to be Kansas and Texas Tech, as the Knights have tiebreakers over both. That is UCF’s only reasonable path to a double bye — and it’s not even that reasonable.
Remaining Seeds
9. West Virginia (16-12, 7-8)
10. Cincinnati (15-13, 7-8)
As West Virginia fans like to remind me, the Mountaineers swept the Bearcats. So, enjoy that No. 9 seed.
11. Colorado (16-12, 6-9)
The Buffs are the last team in the conference standings that can still finish .500, assuming they win all three remaining games. That could be relevant to the teams that are holding onto single byes.
12. Arizona State (14-14, 5-10)
13. Oklahoma State (17-11, 5-10)
Hey, remember that time Arizona State beat Oklahoma State? Relevant.
14. Baylor (14-14, 4-11)
15. Kansas State (11-17, 2-13)
16. Utah (10-18, 2-13)
Joe Lunardi needs to get Baylor off his one-sheet. It’s a little embarrassing at this point. Kansas State beat Utah head-to-head.
As of now, this should be how the Big 12 Tournament schedule would play out, based on the seeds above:
First Round (Tuesday, March 10)
Game 1: No. 12 Arizona State vs. No. 13 Oklahoma State
Game 2: No. 9 West Virginia vs. No. 16 Utah
Game 3: No. 10 Cincinnati vs. No. 15 Kansas State
Game 4: No. 11 Colorado vs. No. 14 Baylor
Second Round (Wednesday, March 11)
Game 5: Game 1 winner vs. No. 5 Houston
Game 6: Game 2 winner vs. No. 8 TCU
Game 7: Game 3 winner vs. No. 7 BYU
Game 8: Game 4 winner vs. No. 6 UCF
Quarterfinals (Thursday, March 12)
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Game 10: Game 6 winner vs. No. 1 Arizona
Game 11: Game 7 winner vs. No. 2 Kansas
Game 12: Game 8 winner vs. No. 3 Iowa State
Semifinals (Friday, March 13)
Game 13: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner
Game 14: Game 11 winner vs. Game 12 winner
Championship (Saturday, March 14)
Game 15: Game 13 winner vs. Game 14 winner
