Baylor hits the road to take on the UCF Knights on Saturday in a Big 12 basketball showdown between one team currently solidly in the NCAA Tournament, and another one still holding out hope it can close strong and get into the Big Dance. UCF is 20-7 overall and 9-6 in Big 12 play, while Baylor is 14-14 overall and 4-11 in the league. Here’s a preview, prediction and updated odds on the game.
Baylor vs. UCF Game Odds
UCF opened up as a 1.5-point favorite on Friday night, with a point total of 160.5. As of Saturday afternoon, the line has moved slightly with UCF as a 2-point favorite, and the over/under point total has dipped to 158.5 or 159 total points.
Key Storyline: UCF’s Offense on a Heater
The Knights are averaging over 80 points per game during their three-game winning streak over TCU, Utah and BYU, including putting up 97 against the Cougars this week. The Knights are now 6th in scoring in the Big 12, 6th in field goal percentage and third in three-point field goal percentage. Baylor’s defense has not lived up to its standard from recent years under Scott Drew, but if they’re going to step up, today is the day.
Match Up to Watch: Baylor’s Cameron Carr Going Off?
If Baylor wants to pull off the upset, Cameron Carr needs to have a big game. Baylor played well vs. No. 2 Arizona earlier in the week, in a game the Bears led by 10 points early in the second half, before letting it slip away. Carr also has had big games when the Bears came up just short against BYU and Iowa State over the last couple of weeks. If UCF locks him down on offense, the Knights should win comfortably at home.
Prediction: UCF 78, Baylor 72
The Knights have been one of the more underrated home teams in the country this season. They have great home wins like Kansas, but even their losses (Arizona) saw the Knights play the Top-5 team tough earlier in the league play. Baylor hasn’t won a road game in a month, and they only have two road victories this season in the league. That’s enough for me to pick the Knights, as Themus Fulks, Riley Kugel and Jordan Burks help create a strong three-headed scoring attack that will wear down Baylor as the game progresses. And if this game is close, UCF hits its free throws (3rd in the Big 12), while Baylor doesn’t (14th).
