TCU hits the road to take on the Kansas State Wildcats on Saturday as these two Big 12 teams are trending in different directions. TCU is trying to punch a ticket to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in two years, while Kansas State is on the hunt for a new head coach, after firing Jerome Tang earlier this month. TCU is 18-10 overall and 8-7 in the league, while K-State is 11-17 overall and 2-13 in the Big 12. Here’s a prediction, preview and updated odds on this game.
TCU vs. Kansas State Game Odds
TCU opened up as a 2-point favorite, while the over/under opened at 155 total points. By Saturday afternoon, the Horned Frogs were a 3-point favorite in many sports books, with some having TCU as a 3.5-point favorite, while the over/under had moved up to 158 or 158.5 total points.
Key Storyline: TCU Can’t Afford a Loss
It’s that simple. TCU is currently listed on Joe Lunardi‘s “Last Four In” to the NCAA Tournament. A loss to Kansas State on Saturday would be catastrophic for Jamie Dixon and the Horned Frogs. They just can’t afford to lose this game, especially considering they travel to play Texas Tech next week, followed by Cincinnati, another bubble team to watch in the Big 12 Conference. This needs to be a comfortable win for the Frogs on the road.
Match Up to Watch: Who Makes Their Shots?
I know this sounds overly simplistic, but it’s not intended to be. Here’s the stat: In Big 12 play, TCU ranked 15th in field goal percentage, while Kansas State ranks 16th. These two teams are just not going to fill it up. They’re also both bottom five in the Big 12 Conference in three-point shooting percentage. Who’s going to have the hot hand on Saturday? Or does anyone?
Prediction: TCU 75, Kansas State 70
TCU is in a must-win spot, while Kansas State is reeling and already looking to the offseason. And while TCU has had its struggles scoring, they are one of the better rebounding teams in the Big 12, while ranking second in the league in offensive rebounds per game. They also rank in the Top 5 in turnover margin per game in league play. TCU will get it done, cover this spread, but I would also take a strong look on the under being a play in this game as well.
