The Big 12 men’s basketball season has two more games to go. After a dramatic weekend of games, we had some significant movement in the potential seeding for the Big 12 Tournament this month. Yes, it’s now THIS month. Welcome to March, and now Big 12 Tournament seeding scenarios are top of mind.
One team dropped off out of the double byes. Another flip came in the single byes. And one team is oh so close to winning the league and clinching the No. 1 seed. But a Top 5 team has the chance to muck it up on Monday.
In two weeks, 16 teams will hit Kansas City, and one will emerge with the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. Seeding can be crucial. It can help ease the path to a title — or make it harder. This being the Big 12, most paths are going to be brutal.
In this piece we look at where each Big 12 team would be seeded if the tournament started today. In addition, we project a bit to see how seeds could change in the final two games.
Big 12 Tournament Seeds 1-4 (Double Byes)
1. Arizona (27-2, 14-2)
2. Texas Tech (22-7, 12-4)
3. Houston (24-5, 12-4)
4. Kansas (21-8, 11-5)
Arizona is nearly there. The Wildcats just need to win one game down the stretch as they have a two-game cushion with two to play. Arizona could clinch the No. 1 seed and regular season title on Monday at home against Iowa State.
Remember when I said Houston wasn’t done when it came to a double bye? Well, with the losses by Kansas and Iowa State, the Cougars are back in the double bye. Tech has the second seed. Why? Per Big 12 tiebreaker rules, since the two are tied head-to-head:
“Each team’s winning percentage versus the team occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings and then continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.”
Tech beat Arizona. Houston didn’t. So, Tech is No. 2.
Iowa State and Kansas need the same tiebreaker since they split head-to-head. It’s by winning percentage. Kansas split with Arizona and Iowa State hasn’t played the Wildcats yet. Technically, Kansas gets the No. 4 seed for now. If Iowa State wins on Monday, it would leap past Kansas.
Seeds 5-8 (Single Byes)
5. Iowa State (24-5, 11-5)
6. UCF (20-8, 9-7)
7. TCU (19-10, 9-7)
8. West Virginia (17-12, 8-8)
UCF and TCU was a clean tiebreaker. The Knights beat the Horned Frogs. Both get a single bye.
Why is West Virginia No. 8? Well, BYU, West Virginia and Cincinnati are tied at 8-8 in league play. So, it’s round robin time, by winning percentage:
West Virginia: 3-0
BYU: 0-1
Cincinnati: 0-2
BYU and Cincinnati play each other this week, but it really doesn’t matter. With a 1.000 winning percentage and no more games against either team, the Mountaineers have that tiebreaker, both head-to-head with both teams and in the round-robin. It doesn’t mean they’ll hang onto the No. 8 seed. It just means the Mountaineers have the equivalent of pocket aces against those two teams.
Remaining Seeds
9. Cincinnati (16-13, 8-8)
10. BYU (20-9, 8-8)
So, the Cougars and Bearcats will settle the tiebreaker on the floor this week. But, we must break the tie for now. Remember our two-way tiebreaker when the head-to-head is tied? This took a bit. But Cincinnati’s huge upset of Kansas is relevant here because it pushes the Bearcats to the No. 9 seed.
11. Colorado (16-13, 6-10)
12. Arizona State (15-14, 6-10)
Colorado swept the season series with Arizona State. The Sun Devils must finish ahead of the Buffs to get a higher seed.
13. Baylor (15-14, 5-11)
14. Oklahoma State (17-12, 5-11)
Hey, remember that time Baylor beat Oklahoma State? Relevant.
15. Kansas State (11-18, 2-14)
16. Utah (10-19, 2-14)
Kansas State beat Utah earlier this season. It’s the only thing keeping K-State off the last seed line.
As of now, this should be how the Big 12 Tournament schedule would play out, based on the seeds above:
First Round (Tuesday, March 10)
Game 1: No. 12 Arizona State vs. No. 13 Baylor
Game 2: No. 9 Cincinnati vs. No. 16 Utah
Game 3: No. 10 BYU vs. No. 15 Kansas State
Game 4: No. 11 Colorado vs. No. 14 Oklahoma State
Second Round (Wednesday, March 11)
Game 5: Game 1 winner vs. No. 5 Iowa State
Game 6: Game 2 winner vs. No. 8 West Virginia
Game 7: Game 3 winner vs. No. 7 TCU
Game 8: Game 4 winner vs. No. 6 UCF
Quarterfinals (Thursday, March 12)
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. No. 4 Kansas
Game 10: Game 6 winner vs. No. 1 Arizona
Game 11: Game 7 winner vs. No. 2 Texas Tech
Game 12: Game 8 winner vs. No. 3 Houston
Semifinals (Friday, March 13)
Game 13: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner
Game 14: Game 11 winner vs. Game 12 winner
Championship (Saturday, March 14)
Game 15: Game 13 winner vs. Game 14 winner
