Iowa State hits the road to take on Arizona in a Big Monday match up on ESPN from the McKale Center tonight at 8:00 p.m. CT. The two teams are still in the hunt for a Big 12 regular season title, but it’s Arizona in the driver’s seat to lock up the No. 1 seed in Kansas City for the Big 12 basketball tournament. Arizona holds a two-game lead with two games left in the season over Houston and Texas Tech. Meantime, Iowa State is out of the race after they lost to the Red Raiders on Saturday. Meantime, Arizona is coming off a 23-point win over Kansas. Here’s a preview, prediction and updated game odds for the game in Tucson on Monday night.
Iowa State vs. Arizona Updated Game Odds
Arizona opened up on Sunday as a 7-point favorite, with the over/under set at 146.0 total points ahead of the match up. By Monday morning, the line nudged up to Arizona -7.5 points, while the over/under climbed to 147.5 total points. And as we approach tip off on Monday night, Arizona is DOWN To a 6.5 or 7-point favorite, with the over/under has moved up to 149 total points.
This is not the movement I expected to see today across various sportsbooks. I said on my YouTube channel on Sunday night I thought the money would pour in on Wildcats, but I am on the Cyclones plus the points as well (more below).
Key Storyline: Can Iowa State Hit Its Three-Pointers?
If Iowa State is going to win this game, it’s going to be need to be from deep. The Cyclones are the second-best three-point shooting team in the Big 12, and to go on the road and beat at team like Arizona, they’re going to have to be lights out. In their two losses over the last week and a half, Iowa State shot 28% from three vs. BYU and then 33% in their loss to Texas Tech, well below their 38% season average in conference play.
Match Up to Watch: Who Controls the Tempo?
If Arizona is dominating the boards, getting out on fast-breaks, and wins the pace of this game, Arizona will cruise to a home win. If Iowa State can slow this game down, control possessions, play clean basketball and use their second-best turnover margin in the Big 12 to their advantage, the Cyclones could be poised for an upset on Big Monday. The pace will help determine who wins the game.
Prediction: Arizona 78, Iowa State 72
The spread is too big here as Iowa State is being undervalued coming off a rough three-game stretch, but I think a bounce-back is possible, just not a big enough bounce-back to win outright. But they’ll push Arizona on Big Monday, who is feeling themselves after dominating Kansas on Saturday. In terms of offensive efficiency, these teams are right next to each other at 15th and 16th in the country. They’re both also Top 10 in the country in KenPom defensive rating. They’re more equal than many realize when you look at these advanced metrics.
Also, Iowa State can hang with the Wildcats on the boards better than most, as they’re No. 3 in the Big 12 in rebounding margin, but Arizona will pull away as the second half progresses and clinch the No. 1 seed in the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City next week.
