Selection Sunday is fast approaching for the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament, and the Big 12 has three programs on the wrong side of the bubble.
With two regular-season games remaining, West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Baylor are each more than seven spots outside the projected Field of 68. West Virginia currently sits at No. 75 in bracket projections, followed closely by Cincinnati at No. 76 and Baylor at No. 79.
That means the margin for error? Essentially zero.
West Virginia: Resume Boost Hard to Find
West Virginia is technically the closest of the trio, but the path isn’t exactly favorable. The Mountaineers close the regular season against Kansas State, which is awful, and UCF, which is a tournament team and would provide a boost. But seven spots? That may be tough.
WVU may need a deep run in the Big 12 Tournament just to re-enter serious at-large consideration.
Cincinnati: Opportunity Knocks
Cincinnati arguably has the clearest path of the three. The Bearcats close the season against BYU and TCU, both of whom are projected inside the tournament field.
That presents a major opportunity. Two Quad 1-type wins to close the year could significantly change Cincinnati’s positioning heading into conference tournament week. Lose one, or both, and the math likely becomes overwhelming.
Baylor: The Steepest Climb
For Baylor, the road is as difficult as it gets. The Bears close the regular season against No. 7 Houston Cougars and Utah, giving them one massive opportunity and one game they simply cannot afford to drop.
Beating Houston would immediately shift the conversation around Baylor’s resume. But falling short would likely leave the Bears needing multiple wins in the Big 12 Tournament to stay alive.
Will They Make It?
The reality is simple: all three teams likely need to finish strong and avoid early exits in Kansas City.
The Big 12’s depth works both ways. It builds resumes in January, but it also leaves little room for error in February and March. With just two games left before postseason play, West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Baylor are all staring at must-win scenarios.
Selection Sunday is coming. The question now is whether the Big 12 sends three more teams dancing or watches three programs fall just short.
