The Big 12 women’s basketball tournament split the difference on Friday in the quarterfinals. Two high seeds won while two lower seeds upset higher seeds.
Friday was the final quadrupleheader of the tournament. The day started with a down-to-the-wire showdown between Kansas State and Oklahoma State and ended with Colorado and Baylor duking it out for the final semifinal berth.
Here were the results of the quarterfinal games:
Game 9: No. 12 Kansas State 74, No. 4 Oklahoma State 73
Game 10: No. 1 TCU 63, No. 9 BYU 43
Game 11: No. 2 West Virginia 67, No. 10 Arizona State 54
Game 12: No. 6 Colorado 62, No. 3 Baylor 53
Here are the takeaways from the day.
The Bubble’s Gonna Get You
At the start of the day here is what ESPN’s Bracketology looked like for the Big 12:
Iowa State: Last Four Byes (given Cyclones stayed there after a loss on Thursday, they’re safe).
Colorado: Last Four In (third team from being first team out)
BYU: First Four Out (first team out)
Arizona State: First Four Out (second team out)
Utah: First Four Out (third team out and done for Big 12 Tournament)
Kansas: Next Four Out (eighth team out and done for Big 12 Tournament)
So, whose bubble burst?
BYU fell to TCU by 20 points. Not necessarily unexpected, but it ended the Cougars’ five-game winning streak. Cougars coach Lee Cummard made the team’s case at halftime of the Kansas State-Oklahoma State game. BYU is 22-11 with a .500 record in league play. Through Thursday BYU was No. 54 in NCAA NET but didn’t have a Quad 1 win. That hurts. The Cougars are now dependent on what other teams do, which isn’t a great place to be.
Arizona State was eliminated by West Virginia. So, the Sun Devils now must wait until next Sunday to learn their tournament fate. I came across this post Thursday night and found it intriguing.
I wrote in December that Arizona State had the potential to fit the profile of an NCAA Tournament team because it won 13 games in non-conference. The formula, based on eight seasons of research is to win at least 10 games in non-conference, win at least 10 Big 12 games and have at least 20 wins before the Big 12 Tournament. Arizona State counted to 20 without winning 10 Big 12 games.
Here’s what I wrote about their situation back then, as ASU was the eighth team to go undefeated in non-conference in the sample size:
“The five that went to the NCAAs averaged 15.6 wins in Big 12 play. The other two averaged 7.0. Eight Big 12 wins is a fork in the road. One team — the 2016-17 West Virginia Mountaineers — went 12-0, won eight league games and reached the NCAA Tournament. The other — the 2017-18 West Virginia Mountaineers — went 12-0, then won eight league games and went to the WNIT. The difference? That 2016-17 team won the Big 12 Tournament to get the auto bid.”
Arizona State won nine league games. Based on historical data, the Sun Devils should squeeze in.
As for Colorado, the Buffs beat Baylor and advanced to face West Virginia in the semifinals. With 22 wins and two wins in Kansas City, there should be no reason for the NCAA Tournament committee to ignore CU come Selection Sunday.
I think it’s likely the Big 12 has played its way into eight NCAA Tournament bids, thanks to what’s happened in Kansas City this week.
Kansas State, Chaos Agent
For the third straight day, Kansas State won. For the second straight day, Kansas State upset a higher seed. For the third straight day, Kansas State made a little Big 12 history — and this was a big one.
The Big 12 has been around for 30 years. The Wildcats are the first No. 12 seed to advance to the semifinals in league history. To add to it, guard Gina Garcia had nine assists. He has 21 for the tournament and is the third K-State player to have 20 or more assists in the tournament. The last player to do it was in 2004.
I covered Kansas State’s game with TCU in December. I wrote back then that the Wildcats will eventually figure it out, but it may not be until February or even March. I was there in Lubbock when they beat Texas Tech and handed the Lady Raiders their first loss of the season. The Wildcats need to win the Big 12 Tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament. I don’t envy who plays them in the WBIT.
Oh, and Jordan Speiser is going to be a lot of fun to watch the next three years. She had four points when I saw her against TCU. She had 21 on Friday. The growth is clear.
A Different League of Parity
I don’t remember last year’s tournament having this much parity. But when I looked back, the first two rounds were chaotic. The lower seeds won each first-round game. The lower seed also won two of the four second-round games. But, once the tournament got to the quarterfinals, everything went chalk. The top four seeds won out until No. 1 seed TCU won the championship.
This year the parity is flipped. The higher seed won all four first-round games. Then, the lower seed won three of the four second-round games. On Friday, half of the lower seeds won in the quarterfinals — Kansas State, along with No. 6 Colorado, which upended No. 3 seed Baylor.
So, is there an upset brewing on Saturday, or will it be a TCU-West Virginia final? The way this tournament has gone, it’s possible one of those top two seeds won’t make it. But this is good for the league, and it underscores why TCU lost three league games this season. This league is deeper than it’s been given credit for.
The Floor, Day 3
Guess what folks? Bullying works.
The Roman numerals disappeared for the quarterfinals. They’re still in the paint areas on each side, but they’re far less viewable on television. I didn’t notice it at first. I’d gotten used to seeing it. This is a better viewing experience on TV. It’s the second day the Big 12 has made adjustments to the floor, though it’s not clear if they’re acting on feedback or not. But …
I can only assume the Gap Goat Queen, Gabby Gregory, was in the house on Friday for Kansas State’s upset of Oklahoma State. I get my first look at the floor next week.
Now that we’re three days in, is experience with the court helping teams like Kansas State, which has multiple games on the floor? It’s an interesting thought, given that most players have said the new floor takes a bit of getting used to.
“Well, yeah, we’ve played three times on the court,” K-State’s Nastja Claessens said. “I think Oklahoma State maybe practiced on it? I don’t even know. But we’re in rhythm. We’ve had that game rhythm. We’ve been here three days. So, I think that also plays a little bit to our advantage.”
Meanwhile, Iowa State’s Addy Brown is NOT a fan. For someone who came back from a leg injury just a few weeks ago, it’s an understandable assessment.
Oh, and gotta have that product activation, right?
