The Big 12 women’s basketball tournament has come down to one game for the title and the automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament.
In truth, No. 1 TCU and No. 2 West Virginia are going to the NCAA Tournament regardless of Sunday’s result. But the Horned Frogs could use the additional win to cement a home sub-regional while a win for the Mountaineers might give West Virginia a shot at a home sub-regional of its own.
After four days of good old fashioned March chaos, the title comes down to the best two teams in the conference.
Here is a preview of the championship game.
Game 15: No. 1 TCU vs. No. 2 West Virginia, 4 p.m., ESPN
Records: TCU (29-4), West Virginia (26-6).
Matchups: TCU won both matchups with West Virginia. The Horned Frogs won in Morgantown, 51-50, and in Fort Worth, 59-50.
About TCU: The Horned Frogs are shooting to become the first team to win the regular-season and tournament championship for the second straight year. The last team to pull off the double in back-to-back seasons was Baylor in 2018 and 2019. TCU has been uneven in the Big 12 Tournament, though the Horned Frogs beat BYU convincingly and Kansas State by 12 points.
When the Horned Frogs are sharp, Olivia Miles is a triple-double waiting to happen. Kansas State got her in foul trouble on Saturday, but she still had 18 points, eight rebounds and three assists. The real star was Marta Suarez, who finished with a double-double — 22 points and 11 rebounds — as she scored 14 points in the third quarter to put TCU in control of the game.
The Horned Frogs like to run the high screen-and-roll game with Suarez and Miles. It helps open the floor for Clara Silva, Donovyn Hunter and Taylor Bigby. Bigby is having a sharp tournament. Off the bench, Veronica Sheffey had a brilliant 20 minutes on Saturday, scoring 10 points. She can give the Horned Frogs a boost if Miles gets into foul trouble again.
About West Virginia: West Virginia won the Big 12 Tournament title in 2017, its only tournament title since joining the league. The Mountaineers also shared the 2014 regular-season title with Baylor.
The Mountaineers are built around their defense, and there is no better example than Big 12 defensive player of the year Jordan Harrison, who made the game-sealing steal in Saturday’s semifinal win. She’s also having her best offensive season and has done less deferring this season after the graduation of JJ Quinerly.
The offense flows from the defense on this team. Harrison had 15 points against Colorado, followed by Gia Cooke’s 14 points and Kierra Wheeler’s 12 points. Wheeler finished with a double-double and she’s the only player that consistently match up with TCU’s forwards inside. When West Virginia is playing defense right, it spreads the floor to prevent taller teams from clogging the lane.
West Virginia will need a big game from Sydney Shaw, who only had five points against Colorado. She’s normally one of the Mountaineers’ best shooters. She only got seven chances on Saturday.
Prediction: TCU 67, West Virginia 64. The Horned Frogs finally get the chemistry right after two days of uneven games and win the title again. But the Mountaineers won’t make it easy.
Big 12 2026 Women’s Basketball Tournament
At T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, Mo.
All times central
First Round (Wednesday, March 4)
Game 1: No. 12 Kansas State 91, No. 13 Cincinnati 66
Game 2: No. 9 BYU 76, No. 16 Houston 66
Game 3: No. 10 Arizona State 54, No. 15 Arizona, 51
Game 4: No. 11 Kansas 56, No. 14 UCF 35
Second Round (Thursday, March 5)
Game 5: No. 12 Kansas State 58, No. 5 Texas Tech 51
Game 6: No. 9 BYU 70, No. 8 Utah 52
Game 7: No. 10 Arizona State 77, No. 7 Iowa State 68
Game 8: No. 6 Colorado 55, No. 11 Kansas 48
Quarterfinals (Friday, March 6)
Game 9: No. 12 Kansas State 74, No. 4 Oklahoma State 73
Game 10: No. 1 TCU 63, No. 9 BYU 43
Game 11: No. 2 West Virginia 67, No. 10 Arizona State 54
Game 12: No. 6 Colorado 62, No. 3 Baylor 53
Semifinals (Saturday, March 7)
Game 13: No. 1 TCU 74, No. 12 Kansas State 62
Game 14: No. 2 West Virginia 48, No. 6 Colorado 47
Championship (Sunday, March 8)
Game 15: No. 1 TCU vs. No. 2 West Virginia, 4 p.m., ESPN
