The Big 12 Tournament is officially here, and everyone has a shot to hoist the trophy with a few key wins. No. 12 Arizona State tips off against No. 13 Baylor in the opening matchup on Tuesday, March 10th at 11:30 AM CT. Neither team is on the bubble or all that close in this one, so it looks like both programs will need to run the ladder if they wish to keep their season alive in the Big Dance. Here’s a preview, prediction, key storylines, and updated odds to keep an eye on in this matchup as we get set for today’s game.
Arizona State vs. Baylor Basketball Updated Odds
The Baylor Bears opened as a 2.5-point favorite in Kansas City, with an over/under of 157.5 total points. The line has moved by Tuesday morning to Baylor as a 3.5 or 4.5-point favorite, depending on the sports book, and an over/under of 154.5 total points.
Key Storyline: The End is Near
While Baylor’s season would go down as a significant disappointment with no trip to the NCAA Tournament, the contest is perhaps more dire for Arizona State. That’s because head coach Bobby Hurley’s contract is set to run out at the conclusion of the season, and the Sun Devils are fighting for Hurley’s coaching life and for the opportunity to remain on the court. Win or lose, the road ahead will be a gauntlet for whichever team comes out on top, but for ASU, it may mean that much more.
Match Up to Watch: Baylor Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
Despite their overall record not being great, Baylor’s offense has still shone in 2025-26. The Bears check in with the Big 12’s fourth-best offense, averaging 82.7 points per game. On the opposite side of the court, ASU’s defense is near the bottom of the league, sitting in 11th, surrendering 77.9 points per game. If Arizona State plans to walk out with an upset, it’ll have to slow down Baylor’s red-hot offensive attack.
Prediction: Baylor 82, Arizona State 78
The money continues to pour in on the Baylor Bears ahead of tip off in the first game of the Big 12 Tournament. Baylor has had a disappointing season, but remains one of the better rebounding teams in the Big 12, while Arizona State is the worst in the league. Combine that with Baylor’s ability to fill it up, with the third-best field goal percentage in the Big 12, compared to Arizona State (14th in the Big 12), and the Bears will outlast the Sun Devils on Tuesday afternoon in Kansas City.
