After taking down Baylor in their opening matchup of the Big 12 Basketball Tournament, the Arizona State Sun Devils are ready for their next challenge. This time it comes in the form of the Iowa State Cyclones, who are not only one of the best teams in the tournament, but in the country. No. 5 Iowa State is set to take on No. 12 Arizona State on Wednesday, March 11th at 11:30 AM CT. Iowa State has been incredibly dominant throughout its time in Kansas City, with the T-Mobile Center widely regarded as somewhat of a home game for the ‘Clones. Here’s a preview, prediction, key storylines, and updated odds to keep an eye on in this matchup as we get set for today’s game.
Iowa State vs. Arizona State Basketball Updated Odds
The spread for the contest rests in favor of the Cyclones, who opened as a 12-point favorite on Tuesday, with an over/under of 147.0 total points. By Wednesday morning, the spread has held steady, with the over/under moving up to 148.0 or 148.5 total points.
Key Storyline: Momentum vs. History
As I said in the intro, Iowa State has been incredible in the Big 12 Tournament under TJ Otzelberger. I mean, it’s been branded Hilton South for a reason! The Cyclones are 6-3 all-time in the Big 12 Tournament under Otzelberger and are two years removed from a Championship win over Houston in dominating fashion in 2024-25. On the other end of the court is Arizona State, which is not only playing for their tournament lives (granted, they’d have to win it all to get there), but for Bobby Hurley’s job.
Match Up to Watch: Arizona State Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
The big matchup to watch in this one is Arizona State’s offense vs. Iowa State’s defense. The Cyclones make life on offense hell for opponents and rally to the basketball at every level. They are giving up the third-fewest points of any team in the Big 12, trailing just West Virginia and Houston, with 65.7 PPG on average. Offensively, Arizona State doesn’t have much in the metrics department, but they are certainly streaky. Though they average the 11th-fewest points in the league at 77.9 PPG, they have players who can light it up in the box score. Keep an eye on Pig Johnson, Mo Odum, and Massamba Diop to have big days.
Prediction: Iowa State 83, Arizona State 75
Even though Iowa State is better in just about every metric and will definitely have a home-court advantage, this one could be close. The Cyclones should get the job done, as they did in the first matchup between these two teams (86-65 win in Ames), but Arizona State is fresh and ready to roll. There’s something to be said for earning a bye and starting off slow, but Iowa State’s defense travels, and I believe they’ll get the job done. They would play No. 4 Texas Tech if that were to occur.
