The quarterfinal round of the Big 12 Tournament continues this afternoon as the No. 1 seed makes its debut. The No. 1 seeded Arizona Wildcats will face the No. 8 seeded UCF Knights at 2 PM CT at T-Mobile Arena in Kansas City, Mo. Arizona is a NCAA Tournament lock and a likely No. 1 seed. UCF is probably in after its win over Cincinnati in the second round, but an upset of the Wildcats would probably move them up a seed line. Here’s a preview, prediction, key storylines, and updated odds to keep an eye on in this matchup as we get set for tonight’s game.
Arizona vs. UCF Basketball Updated Odds
The Wildcats opened as a 15.5-point favorite in Kansas City, with an over/under of 158.0 total points. By Thursday afternoon, the line had moved to Arizona as a 16.0 or 16.5-point favorite, with the over/under ticking up to 159.0 or 159.5.
Key Storyline: A Different Game on a Neutral Floor?
Arizona went to Orlando to face UCF on Jan. 17 and it turned into quite the tight showdown for most of the game until the then-No. 1 Wildcats pulled away, 84-77. At the time, it was the fifth Big 12 game for both teams and while Arizona improved to 5-0 in league play UCF dropped to 3-2.
Since then? Arizona won the regular-season title with a 16-2 lead record and went 11-2 after that win over UCF. As for the Knights, they finished nine league wins, so they ended up finishing 6-7 after that game. Knights coach Johnny Dawkins acknowledged that he expected a much different game.
Match Up to Watch: Jaden Bradley vs. Themus Fulks
In the first matchup the two guards dueled to a draw. Bradley, whose selection as Big 12 player of the year by the coaches has rankled fans of other Big 12 teams, led Arizona that game with 23 points, including an 11-for-13 clip at the free throw line. He also had six rebounds, five assists and two steals. It was a good example of his value to the Wildcats.
UCF’s Fulks, who was one of the league’s top scorers, finished with 30 points against Arizona’s stout defense. He had five rebounds, eight assists and two steals. He was a mid-range beast in that game, going 11-of-18 from the floor. He also canned two 3-pointers. This matchup may be different, but these two players could potentially fuel how the game develops.
Prediction: Arizona 81, UCF 75
Expect this to be close early. The Knights have a little momentum after the Cincinnati win and, as strange as it sounds, have a little more experience on the Big 12’s new floor. Arizona should adjust quickly. UCF has the length to keep up with Arizona on the glass (the Wildcats were only plus-one on the boards in the January game). The one starter that didn’t play well for Arizona in the first matchup — Koa Peat — should have a much better game this time around. The Wildcats pull away in the second half.
