KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The burst of energy that helped the Texas Tech Red Raiders navigate the immediate aftermath of losing JT Toppin appears to have passed. It makes their NCAA Tournament future murky at best. The No. 4 seeded Red Raiders (22-10) fell to the No. 5 seeded Iowa State Cyclones (27-6), 75-53, in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament at T-Mobile Center on Thursday. It wasn’t an aberration. It was a trend. And it may limit how long the Red Raiders play in the NCAA Tournament.
Texas Tech’s Winning Formula
Forget selling out to the 3-pointer. The Red Raiders must shoot great to win. Thursday’s loss was their third straight game shooting less than 50%. All were losses. It makes it clear where Texas Tech’s margins lie.
“We’ve hit a lull,” Texas Tech coach Grant McCasland said. “The spike was the competitiveness of guys flying around. We’re starting to really lose the edge of just competing and playing without trying not make a mistake. We just need to play the game and do right. It’s hard to explain until you get in the game and you see guys overthinking possessions.”
When Toppin suffered his season-ending ACL injury on Feb. 17 at Arizona State, the Red Raiders had four days to prepare for life without him — and a cushy opponent to face in Kansas State. Trusting their guards and led by Christian Anderson, the Red Raiders rolled to a 100-72 win.
Texas Tech beat a feisty Bearcats team at home three nights later and then went to Ames to face Iowa State. The Red Raiders beat the then-No. 4 Cyclones, 82-73, handing Iowa State its only home loss of the season.
The common denominator? Shooting percentage. The Red Raiders shot better than 50% from the field in all three games. If a team is scoring at all three levels and shooting that high a percentage, interior deficiencies can be papered over.
Tough Final Stretch
Since then, the road has gotten much tougher. Tech lost to TCU in Lubbock on March 3, 73-65, and followed that with a road loss at BYU to end the regular season, 82-76. With Thursday’s loss, the Red Raiders have lost three straight, all of which to teams that will be in the NCAA Tournament next week.
Plus, the Red Raiders shot 45% against TCU and 47% against BYU. On Thursday, they shot 34%. Tech bought into its guard play out of necessity. It’s the best part of its team without Toppin. But buying into shooting the ball well has a shelf life against teams like Iowa State, ones that play defense at a high level. It can also be a team’s least consistent statistic.
Christian Anderson had just 10 points on Thursday. In Tech’s three wins without Toppin he averaged 22 points. In the three losses he’s averaged 14.6 points. He left the game in the second half with what appeared to be a minor injury after he slipped on the floor. Teams are focused on him and rightly so. Others will have to step up.
“We’re throwing a lot at them and we’re out of the honeymoon phase,” McCasland said.
The Red Raiders will be in the NCAA Tournament next week. The question is how long they’ll stick around? Their loss on Thursday may have given everyone a clue.
