It’s the Big 12 Tournament Championship Game tonight featuring the Houston Cougars and the Arizona Wildcats. The game tips off in Kansas City at 5:00 p.m. CT on ESPN. It’s a chalk championship game as the Wildcats beat Iowa State on Friday night on a buzzer-beater, while Houston took the Kansas Jayhawks to the woodshed. The game is a rematch of last year’s Championship Game, which the Houston Cougars won 72-64, with Emanuel Sharp being named the Tournament’s MVP. Here’s a preview, prediction and updated odds on the game.
Arizona vs. Houston Game Odds
Arizona opened up as a 3.0-point favorite in this game, with the over/under set at 137.0 total points. By Saturday afternoon, Arizona was down to a 1.5-point favorite in multiple sports books, while the over/under ticked up to 138.5 or 139.0 total points.
Key Storyline: What’s Actually on the Line?
Arizona seems locked for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament come Selection Sunday. Meantime, Houston seems to be a solid No. 2 seed. Is it even possible for them to move up to a No. 1 seed? Houston would probably need UConn to lose to St. John’s in the Big East Finals and then Florida to lose to Vanderbilt in the SEC semifinals on Saturday to even have a chance of ending up on the 1-seed line. I don’t think it’s likely. But regardless, in what is clearly the best conference in college basketball, these programs have a tremendous amount of pride, and winning this conference tournament, which would be a first for Arizona, or would give Houston back-to-back Big 12 Tournament titles for the first time in the tournament since Iowa State in 2015, is going to make this a great game.
Match Up to Watch: The Turnover Margin
When Arizona won at Houston 73-66 earlier this year, the Wildcats won the turnover margin +7. Houston needs to win this on Saturday to have a chance at the upset. They were the best in the Big 12 Conference in turnover margin all season at +5 per game. Also, Anthony Dell’Orso, who dropped a season-high 26 points on Friday night vs. Iowa State, scored 22 against Houston last month. The Cougars also need to avoid long droughts, which hurt them last time these two teams met. Houston had an eight-minute scoring drought in that game that helped turn the tide towards the Wildcats in the second half.
Prediction: Arizona 74, Houston 69
I picked Arizona at the start of the Tournament on our podcast/YouTube show, which you can subscribe to here, and I see absolutely no reason to change that right now. The Wildcats proved during the regular season they were the best team in the Big 12, and they’ve done it so far during the Tournament. They won’t have to deal with a game that feels like a road match up on Saturday night, which they dealt with on Friday, either. Any team that beats Arizona is going to have to get hot from three, you just can’t beat these guys exchanging two’s. And Houston isn’t built to do that this season, ranking 10th in the Big 12 in three-point percentage. I’m taking Arizona to win and cover the spread on Saturday night to win their first-ever Big 12 Tournament Title.
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