The NCAA Tournament Field of 68 is set. And we are now already looking ahead to games getting underway later this week. The first and second round games are Thursday through Sunday, followed by the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 next week, and then the Final Four the weekend of April 3rd. And as fans break down their brackets, let’s look at the eight Big 12 teams who made the NCAA Tournament and who has the best chance to make a deep run in March Madness. We will rank these paths from easiest to hardest.
1. Houston Cougars: No. 2 Seed in the South
The Houston Cougars have the South Regional, which means if they get to the second weekend, they will be playing games in… Houston. That’s edge No. 1. Then, it’s their path, which includes Idaho, followed by St. Mary’s/Texas A&M, followed by likely Illinois or North Carolina, and an Elite 8 possibly against Florida or Nebraska.
Florida is the weakest 1 seed in the Tournament, and just bombed out in the SEC Tournament. Houston would get a rematch of last year’s National Championship, which will give the Cougars a natural edge. Prior to that, St. Mary’s can be tricky, as they can play physical, but the Gaels are not used to the physicality of the Big 12. And then Illinois may be the toughest game, as they have a strong offense, but I believe that Houston’s defense will win the day, especially with some home-court advantage. Houston is well positioned to make a Final 4 run.
2. Arizona Wildcats: No. 1 Seed in the West
As a 1 seed, it’s natural for the Arizona Wildcats to have one of the easier paths. And they’re the lone Big 12 team with a top seed, as expected. A game with LIU is followed by Villanova/Utah State, followed by likely Wisconsin/Arkansas, and then it’s expected to be Purdue/Gonzaga. Of course, BYU could be in the mix if they go on a run here. But for Arizona, they have four wins against top-10 opponents in just the past month and seem to be picking up steam — they haven’t lost since February 14th. Arkansas could be tricky if John Calipari and freshman star Darius Acuff Jr. have a career day. That one worries me, potentially. Meantime, Purdue’s experience could be a problem for Arizona, if we get that Elite 8 match up, but Arizona’s size, depth and talent should win the day.
3. Iowa State Cyclones: No. 2 Seed in the Midwest
Iowa State gets Tennessee State, followed by Kentucky/Santa Clara. They would then likely be facing Tennessee or Virginia, followed by Michigan/Alabama on the other side of the bracket. Kentucky limped down the stretch, despite its talent, while Tennessee has not done a great job taking care of the ball, which plays into one of the strengths of Iowa State (turnovers). Then, it could be a Michigan team in the Elite 8 without LJ Cason. This is a really nice draw for Iowa State, with multiple top seeds that play into the strengths of the Cyclones, who have a defense that should travel well through March.
4. BYU Cougars: No. 6 Seed in the West
The BYU Cougars had a good stretch to close the season to gain some confidence heading into March Madness. They needed it, and now likely No. 1 NBA Draft pick AJ Dybantsa needs to put together a big run for BYU to make noise. But the draw is a good one for BYU. They get the winner of NC State/Texas in the play-in game. Then, it’s Gonzaga or Kennesaw State, with neither program consistently seeing or playing against a player of Dybantsa’s caliber. Purdue on the bottom half of their bracket in a hypothetical Sweet 16 match up is not easy, but Purdue has been more of an offensive vs. defensive team this season. If so, BYU could win a track meet here, potentially. I like BYU’s draw more than the teams below them for a deep run.
Prefer to watch? Check out our full breakdown of the Big 12 teams’ Final Four paths below.
5. Kansas Jayhawks: No. 4 Seed in the East
The Kansas Jayhawks drew the No. 4 seed in the East, and after playing Cal Baptist in San Diego, they have to then likely play Rick Pitino and St. John’s as the No. 5 seed. That’s a brutal draw for KU, as Pitino is a Hall of Famer who has a team with elite toughness and won’t be afraid of KU or the brand that the Jayhawks bring to March. In fact, Pitino will have his guys thriving on that opportunity, especially since SJU got knocked out of the Tournament earlier than expected last season. If they win, they say hello the No. 1 overall seed, Duke. Not easy for KU, but they have Darryn Peterson, so you can never say never.
6. UCF Knights: No. 10 Seed in the East
The UCF Knights drew a No. 10 seed where they will take on No. 7 UCLA. UCF is well positioned to get past UCLA and star guard Donovan Dent. And then, it would be UConn in the Second Round. Most will take UConn, but UCF’s strength of schedule may put them in a spot where they can pull off an upset against a UConn team that has had some head-scratching losses of late, including Creighton and Marquette. So why not UCF? The Knights can hang with UConn on the boards, and the Huskies have struggled at the free throw line. And upset could be brewing, and then a Michigan State or Louisville match up is likely. At that point, you’re playing with house money.
7. Texas Tech Red Raiders: No. 5 Seed in the Midwest
Texas Tech plays Akron in the 5-12 game, then it’s Alabama or Hofstra in the Second Round. The Zips are legit, and they’re going to be a tough out for Tech, who limped down the stretch. Then, it’s probably Alabama, who has a ton of guys who can pour it in. Tech is down JT Toppin and far from an elite defensive team, which could hurt them this first weekend, especially since they aren’t scoring at the same levels they were with Toppin. If they make the second weekend and face Michigan, who is going to slow down Yaxel Lendeborg for the Red Raiders? It seems like a tall task for anyone, never mind a depleted Tech team.
8. TCU Horned Frogs: No. 8 Seed in the East
TCU drew the 8-9 game with the No. 1 overall seed in Duke in their region. That’s a tough draw for Jamie Dixon, who has one of the hotter teams in the Power 4 coming into the tournament. This is an underrated team, one that beat Florida early in the season, and TCU can use that, and it’s Big 12 slate, to give itself a confidence boost going into March Madness. If they beat Ohio State, it’s then Duke, but without Caleb Foster, don’t overlook the Horned Frogs in this game. But in the East Region, which has Hall of Fame coaches up and down the bracket, it’s an incredibly tough road for the Frogs.
