The Arizona Wildcats are back in a familiar spot in the Sweet 16, led by head coach Tommy Lloyd. But now, to get over the Sweet 16 hump, which they haven’t done in over 10 years, they have to get by John Calipari and the red-hot Arkansas Razorbacks. Both teams won their conference tournaments and are playing some of their best basketball of the season. Here’s a preview, prediction, key storylines, and updated odds to keep an eye on in this matchup as we get set for tonight’s game.
Arizona vs. Arkansas Basketball Updated Odds
The Wildcats opened up as an 8.5-point favorite, with an over/under point total of 167. As we approach tip off on Thursday, as of this morning, the Wildcats are down to a 7.5-point favorite, with the over/under down to 165.5 total points.
Key Storyline: Can Arkansas Hit Some 3’s?
So both of these teams shoot exactly 50% from the field. But I don’t believe Arkansas can trade 2’s with Arizona. That’s a losing proposition. If they’re going to pull off the upset, they have to hit some three pointers. And they don’t do it often, but when they do it, they do it well. Arkansas only attempts 21.3 threes per game, but their tops in the SEC hitting 38.7% from downtown. They’ll need to knock down a few key threes to keep Arizona honest on defense, because of not, Arizona is too big, talented, and athletic down low, and it will be a long night for the Razorbacks.
Match Up to Watch: Can Arkansas Compete on the Boards?
Arizona is an elite rebounding team. Arkansas finished 11th in the SEC in the SEC in rebounding. If Arkansas wants to pull off the upset, they have to prevent Arizona from crushing them on the boards. And considering Arizona is the top rebounding team, and the top offensive rebounding team, in the Big 12 Conference, it won’t be easy for Arkansas to pull off.
Prediction: Arizona 84, Arkansas 74
Arizona has outrebounded its opponents over two games by a combined 49, including going +28 in their win over Utah State in the second round. This will be the difference in this game. Arizona will get second-chance opportunities, will keep Arkansas out of the paint, and unless the Razorbacks are able to copy St. John’s model vs. Kansas, which is hit a bunch of three’s, then Arizona should win comfortably. Peat, Krivas and Kharchenkov are just going to be too much for Arkansas, combined with their veteran guard play, and the Wildcats should be able to win this game with relative ease. The Wildcats will get over the Sweet 16 hump for the first time since 2015.
