The No. 11 Texas Longhorns and No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers are set to meet in the Sweet 16 on Thursday in San Jose, California, at 6:10 p.m. CT on CBS. The Longhorns (21-14) have reached the second weekend after defeating No. 11 N.C. State in the First Four, No. 6 BYU 79-71 in the opening round and No. 3 Gonzaga 74-68 last weekend to seat themselves in the race for the West Region. Purdue leaned on Fletcher Loyer‘s 24 points to outrun No. 7 Miami 79-69 last weekend. Here is our prediction, preview, odds and key storylines ahead of tipoff.
Texas vs. Purdue Game Odds
Purdue enters the contest as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 147.5 points. The Boilermakers are 8-0 in neutral-site games this season, while Texas is just 5-3 as it enters its first Sweet 16 since 2023.
Key Storyline: How Far Will the Stampede Run?
Thursday marks the seventh time Texas and Purdue have crossed each other’s path in March Madness. Texas leads those meetings 4-2 and has another high-stakes contest on its hands this year. Only two other programs – VCU in 2011 and UCLA in 2021 – have gone from the First Four to the Final Four. Texas is two wins from becoming the third. Purdue is one of the country’s best 3-point shooting teams and will give the Longhorns a balanced offense to deal with on Thursday. Texas, with its size up and down the roster, has carved out a place for itself defensively in this tournament.
Key Match Up: Can Matas Slow Up Purdue?
Lithuanian center Matas Vokietaitis has played exceptionally well through three tournament games thus far, and he should return well rested after a multi-day break as he lines up with Purdue’s Trey Kaufman-Renn inside. If Texas can successfully force its opponent to stick outside, Vokietaitis will have his chance to win open balls and help Dailyn Swain get rolling on the other end. Purdue’s defense holds opponents to 70.1 points per game – a figure Queens barely surpassed and Miami fell short of in previous rounds.
Prediction: Purdue 82, Texas 74
The upset potential is real for Texas, and they’ll likely come into this contest hot, but over two halves, I like Purdue from a firepower perspective and outlasting the Longhorns from the floor if both defenses bottom out. Purdue is the county’s leading program in offensive efficiency for a reason, and it’s hard to accept a team like that falls short of the Elite Eight.
