With the NCAA Baseball Field of 64 now set, and two Big 12 teams, Kansas and West Virginia, hosting regionals, win probabilities show that the two Big 12 hosts have two of the three lowest win probabilities of any of the 16 regional hosts. PEAR Ratings, covering college baseball, has Nebraska, Kansas and West Virginia, in order, as the three least-likely teams to advance out of their Regional.
Nebraska was given a 47.4% chance to advance, with Kansas at 49.8% and West Virginia at 60.7%. Nebraska’s odds were hurt by Ole Miss, who has a more than 30% chance of advancing, while Kansas has to get past Arkansas, who made a deep run in the SEC Tournament, and thought they might earn a hosting bid, and was given a 39% chance of winning the Lawrence Regional.
Here’s a full look at the Regional-by-Regional odds.
Several college baseball reporters thought that the Big 12 got a raw deal with Kansas and West Virginia ranking No. 15 and No. 16, respectively, with their hosting ranking. But regardless, the league does have two hosts this year, after having zero in 2025.
As for the other four teams in the field, Cincinnati was only given a 17% chance to win the Mississippi State Regional, while Oklahoma State has a 31% chance to win the Alabama Regional, UCF with an 11% chance to win the Auburn Regional, and Arizona State with a 22% chance to win the Nebraska Regional.
Big 12 NCAA Baseball Seeds and Schedule
Kansas landed the No. 15 seed after a 42-16 season where they won the league title for the first time since 1949 and won the Big 12 tournament for the first time since 2006. The Jayhawks will host Northeastern (38-20) on Friday at 1:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+. Meantime, the West Virginia Mountaineers are the No. 16 seed and final NCAA Regional host in this year’s NCAA Baseball Tournament. West Virginia went 39-14 this season and will take on Binghamton (31-20) on Friday at 5:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
The UCF Knights get the toughest draw, heading to the Auburn Regional with No. 4 Auburn, NC State and Milwaukee. For the Knights, it is their 14th NCAA appearance and second in the last three seasons. The Knights went 31-21 on the season and will play on Friday night at 6:00 p.m. ET on ESPNU vs. NC State.
The Arizona State Sun Devils are going to Omaha for the Nebraska Regional with the No. 13 Huskers, South Dakota State and Ole Miss. The Sun Devils went 37-19. They will take on Ole Miss on Friday at 9:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
The Cincinnati Bearcats will play in the Mississippi State Regional, joining the No. 14 Bulldogs, Lipscomb and Louisiana. The Bearcats went 37-20 and play Lousiana on Friday at 7pm ET pn ESPN+
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are heading to SEC country to play in the Alabama Regional, with No. 7 Alabama, Alabama State, SC Upstate. Josh Holliday will try to get his program past the Regionals for the first time since 2019. The Cowboys went 37-20 on the season and will take on SC Upstate on Friday 2:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
