The NBA announced it would change its draft system starting in 2027, running through 2029, and would need another vote to extend it if the league feels it is working. The lottery system, in its current form for the 2026 NBA Draft, gives the team with the worst record in the league the best chance and highest probability to get the No. 1 overall pick. It hasn’t always worked out that the worst team gets the top pick, but that is the way it’s been set up for competitive balance and fairness.
New Lottery System
That is all going out the window with the new “3-2-1 lottery” system. Now, the three teams with the worst record in the NBA will be in what they call the “relegation zone”. This means the bottom three teams in the standings will get only two lottery balls, while teams in the 4th through 10th positions will get three each. One caveat for the bottom three teams is that they won’t be allowed to fall out of the top 12 picks in the draft.
The lottery system is also expanding from 14 to 16 teams. The play-in teams that lose will get two lottery balls each and the play-in teams that win will get one lottery ball each. So there is now a chance that teams that make the playoffs could get a top lottery pick.
A Couple More Notes on Draft Changes
There is a new rule that no team can get the No.1 overall selection in consecutive drafts. No team can get a top-five pick in three consecutive drafts. There are no longer trade protections with picks 12 through 16 when trading future draft picks between teams.
The Reason: Anti-Tanking
The NBA doesn’t want its teams tanking. This has been emphasized over the past few seasons, but will really go into effect starting next season. If a team is suspected of tanking, it can be fined up to $10 million, draft picks can be lost, or mandatory changes to draft positioning can be required.
How This Affects the Big 12 Going Forward
For the 2026 NBA Draft, there will be no changes, and the lottery draft position has already been set. The first round is scheduled for June 23rd. The Big 12 could very well have the top two picks in this year’s NBA Draft. AJ Dybansta and Darryn Peterson are largely projected to be either picks No. 1 or No. 2 in the 2026 NBA Draft. It’s rumored the Utah Jazz, who hold pick No. 2, want Dybansta. Of course, Dybansta played at BYU, and he and his family have grown to really like living in Utah. Typically in pro sports, you don’t get to choose your top landing spot as a rookie, but this could be a case where maybe the Jazz even trade up to No. 1 to snag Dybansta if they feel strongly about getting him. The Washington Wizards hold all of the cards with the No. 1 overall selection. Dybansta is the favorite to be taken first overall, but Peterson still has a shot with potentially the highest ceiling of any player in this class.
As far as the 2027 NBA Draft goes, things will look a lot different, but the Big 12 is still expected to have many players drafted in the lottery. Tyran Stokes, who will be a freshman at Kansas this fall, is expected to be a top-three pick in 2027, and he is likely to go No. 1 or No. 2. Bruce Branch, who will be a part of BYU’s program in 2026, is a projected top-five pick and could be a top-three selection.
Arizona is projected to have a couple of players taken in the 2027 lottery as well. Incoming freshman Caleb Holt and returning starter Motiejus Krivas are both projected to go in the top 10. Meanwhile, incoming Baylor freshman Dylan Mingo is projected to be selected just outside of the top 10 in the 2027 NBA Draft.
It’s too far away to think about the 2028 and 2029 NBA Drafts, but what we can project is that the Big 12 will have more players who will be projected to be lottery picks in those years. We may not know the names of those players, but the Big 12 has proven it has the juice to get its guys into a great position to be drafted in the lottery.
The NBA Finals will be set this weekend, and the draft will be here shortly after. The Big 12 will be on full display with top draft picks ready to be taken off the board immediately, the first night of the draft this year. Next year will be more of the same, with top players coming from the Big 12 conference. It just goes to show that Big 12 basketball remains among the best in college basketball year in and year out.
