We are just a little over two weeks away from kickoff and everyone is rolling out their season predictions. ESPN threw their name in the hat as they recently projected all 16 Big 12 teams‘ win-loss records for the 2026 season.
To come up with these projections, ESPN uses its analytics-based model, Football Power Index. The model takes into account the remaining scheduled games and any previous results. With no games having been played yet, the model is entirely predictive until the season begins.
- Texas Tech Red Raiders: 10.8-1.8
- BYU Cougars: 8.7-3.6
- Utah Utes: 7.7-4.4
- Houston Cougars: 7.4-4.7
- Arizona Wildcats: 7.3-4.8
- Kansas State Wildcats: 7.0-5.1
- TCU Horned Frogs: 6.8-5.3
- Baylor Bears: 6.6-5.5
- Cincinnati Bearcats: 6.4-5.7
- UCF Knights: 6.1-5.9
- Kansas Jayhawks: 6.0-6.0
- Colorado Buffaloes: 6.0-6.1
- Oklahoma State Cowboys: 6.0-6.1
- Arizona State Sun Devils: 6.0-6.1
- West Virginia Mountaineers: 5.4-6.6
- Iowa State Cyclones: 5.1-6.9
One of the first things that I notice is that there is just one team that is projected to win at least ten games. And to nobody’s surprise, that team is Texas Tech. While BYU is second on the list, they are two wins behind Texas Tech which seems like a pretty big gap. I assume that gap between Tech and everyone else has to do with the talent the Red Raiders have on their roster.
If you look at the middle, there isn’t much separating these teams. There is only a one game separating 6 to 14 which is crazy to think about. Then again, this conference thrives on chaos and until someone establishes themselves, then it will continue to be like that.
Finally, I also find it interesting that every single team in the conference is projected to win at least five games. In fact, only two teams are below six wins with West Virginia and Texas Tech which means 14 teams are projected to make a bowl game.
Keep in mind that, this is by no means a perfect list and things are going to change from week to week. However, what this list shows me is that there is Texas Tech, a gap, and then everyone else. Buckle up, because it’s going to be another wild season in the Big 12.
