The Big 12 Conference has 16 teams vying for two spots in the league’s championship game in December. Some have a better chance of reaching it than others.
While the Big 12 did not do a preseason coaches poll for the second straight year, there are plenty of media out there that have weighed in on how they think the 16 teams will finish this season.
Of those, I’ve selected five that I think have the best chance of exceeding those expectations in 2026.
Oklahoma State
There are some that believe the Cowboys, coming of a 1-11 season, could be a stealthy Big 12 Championship game challenger. A lot would have to go right for that to happen. But based on the talent new head coach Eric Morris has brought in, the odds are strong that Oklahoma State will win more games this season than it has in the last two combined — four.
OSU has a set of offensive triplets that could be among the best in college football, led by quarterback Drew Mestemaker. The key to exceeding expectations — which realistically are 7-5 overall — is how much better the defense is after being one of the worst units in college football in 2025.
UCF
The Knights went 5-7 under Scott Frost in 2025, who returned to lead the program he turned into a Colley Matrix national champion nearly a decade ago. But the unsteadiness of the quarterback position kept the Knights from claiming a bowl berth.
That shouldn’t be an issue this year. UCF landed James Madison transfer Alonza Barnett III at quarterback, which should give the offense immensely more stability than it had last season. UCF has several starters back from last year’s defense and coordinator Alex Grinch is back for a second season. Those factors should give the Knights a chance to exceed the expectations most have this season, which is that of a .500 team or slightly better.
Kansas State
The head coaching change from Chris Klieman to program legend Collin Klein have boosted expectations around the program. But this was an average team a season ago and exceeding national expectations revolves around two factors. The first is the defense, which lost nearly every starter from last season and was rebuilt through the transfer portal.
The second is quarterback Avery Johnson. Perhaps the expectations around the Kansas native have been too high all along. But if any head coach is capable of unlocking the fourth-year collegiate’s true potential it’s Klein, who helped land him as a recruit before he left to call plays at Texas A&M, a move that paved his way to return to Manhattan to take over the program that helped him become a Heisman Trophy finalist.
Baylor
Dave Aranda is on hot seat watch for like the third straight year. He spent part of his time with the media at Big 12 Media Days apologizing for last season. His job is on the line — that much is clear, even if no one wants to articulate that publicly.
The Bears went into the transfer portal and snagged former five-star quarterback DJ Lagway, formerly at Florida. He’s the key to turning around what was a below-average Bears team from a year ago. Aranda has also surrender defensive play-calling duties and that may free him up to manage the whole program and make it better. If things go right, there’s a chance the Bears could be a real factor.
Iowa State
The expectations around the Cyclones are muted thanks to the coaching change from Matt Campbell to Jimmy Rogers. He didn’t have to engage in as drastic a roster flip as Morris did at Oklahoma State, but more than 50 transfers are with the Cyclones this season.
He procured a solid quarterback in Arkansas State transfer Jaylen Raynor, who should give the offense a boost. Rogers landed a lot of experience on defense through the portal and enough Cyclones stuck around from last season to give fans hope that if they get hot early, they can exceed what’s expected of them in 2026.
