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Big 12 college football picks against the spread: Week 13

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We are closing with a major push, going 4-1 last week, and putting us at 10-3 in the past three weeks. For the season, we are inching towards the .500 mark, at 28-31 overall. Onto Week 13 with two games on Friday and two on Saturday.

Texas vs. TCU

In a game like this, we can mostly throw the stats out the window. The rumors are swirling around Charlie Strong’s job, with the latest report saying it’s possible he could retain his job with a win over TCU. There’s no way of knowing if that’s true, but based on what we saw Monday at the press conference, where several players showed up to support their coach, the players love this guy and support him.

But, TCU has plenty on the line, needing a win to become bowl eligible. The problem is, the Horned Frogs just aren’t all that good, haven’t been consistent, and have failed to meet expectations. TCU is committing to Kenny Hill at QB, but he’s been turnover prone all season. D’Onta Foreman should have success on the ground against a spotty TCU run defense and send Charlie Strong out a winner. In a game that will be defined by emotion, I’ll take the home team who will be more motivated.

The Pick: Texas -3 

Texas Tech vs. Baylor 

At this point in the season, it can often come down to who has more motivation.

Frankly, neither team has a ton of motivation right now. But, Texas Tech has more as they look to end the season on a high note after last week’s embarrassing 66-10 loss to Iowa State. Baylor has reached the 6-win mark so they are already going bowling, regardless of if they lose their next two games against Tech and WVU. But, the Bears know Jim Grobe is not the long-term answer in Waco, whereas the Red Raiders better be prepared for Kliff Kingsbury to return, because I firmly believe he will be.

Despite 60% of the money coming in on the Bears, the spread has moved in the direction of the Red Raiders, from Baylor -5.5 to -5. The smart money is coming in on Texas Tech and I’ll be joining them.

Also note: the Bears are just 2-8 against the spread and 0-4 on the road (although this is a neutral site game).

The Pick: Texas Tech +5 

Kansas State vs. Kansas

Are the Jayhawks really building something or last week just a complete fluke? Also, did KU spend too much time celebrating last week’s win or are they ready to take on the Wildcats in the infamous Sunflower Showdown.

The spread is awfully large considering the Wildcats aren’t a spread team and Kansas’ offense has steadily improved under QB Carter Stanley.  Kansas State wants to run the ball and gets to face a Kansas team that ranks 9th in the conference in rushing yards allowed per game. But, I think that number is skewed since so many teams end up running the ball against the Jayhawks when they’re up multiple scores.

Also, where K-State has been more vulnerable than expected is in the passing game, where their pass defense ranks 8th in the conference.

It’s a rivalry game, KU is improving, will look to end the season on a high note, and will keep this closer than some will expect.

The Pick: Kansas +27

Iowa State vs. West Virginia

 

The Cyclones are coming off a very impressive 66-10 rout of Texas Tech last week. Now, they turn their attention to a WVU team coming off a tough loss to Oklahoma.

The Cyclones have really turned things around in recent weeks and have played some of the Big 12’s best (Oklahoma) closer than many expected. Now, their 2nd ranked pass defense in the Big 12 gets to face a shaky Skyler Howard on the road and try to make the Mountaineers one dimensional.

Jacob Park and Joel Lanning will continue to work hand in hand, and the two-QB system will have another strong day for Iowa State against a WVU defense that showed holes last week against OU. Also, there could be a hangover effect for the Mountaineers knowing they are out of the Big 12 title picture. On the other side, it’s senior day for Iowa State.

The Cyclones are as good as it gets at home, 5-1 against the spread in Ames. While over 60% of the public is on West Virginia, the line is staying the same or slowly shrinking. Get in with the smart money while you can.

The Pick: Iowa State +7

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