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Big 12 Gambling Picks: Week 10

NCAA Football: Las Vegas Bowl-Houston vs San Diego State

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I got a big head. Two-straight 4-1 weeks and I crapped the bed. 0 and bleepin’ 5?!?! WTF. But I’m still in the black for the season at 23-21-3. Let’s jump right into Week 10!

Kansas vs. Baylor

Having watched this Baylor team in person last week, there are just so many issues. Brewer is in at quarterback, but what’s it worth if the offensive line is still a mess? Kansas’ strength is on the defensive line with Daniel Wise and Dorance Armstrong. The Jayhawks have the more veteran experience, they’re on their home field and are probably embarrassed they opened as a 10-point underdog to the winless Bears. This spread was simply set up because Baylor has played Big 12 opponents closer than Kansas has. That’s fine, but look deeper. KU turned to Carter Stanley who got it going last week at quarterback. This Baylor defense has plenty of holes as well. I don’t know if KU wins, but I feel good about getting more than a touchdown.

The Pick: Kansas +8

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Texas Tech vs. Kansas State

The Red Raiders have lost three in a row, but they’re back home taking on a K-State team that just gave up 400+ passing yards … to Kansas! Whoa. Something has been off all season for the Wildcats, from untimely mistakes to not living up to expectations on both sides of the ball. We still aren’t even sure who the Wildcats will play at quarterback. If it’s Delton or Thompson, then Tech can just sit on the running attack and force K-State to beat them through the air. Nic Shimonek is home and gets comfortable again with a big day as the Red Raiders snap their slide. Also, K-State has been awful against the spread, going 1-5 in the past six games.

The Pick: Texas Tech -3

West Virginia vs. Iowa State

I got burned last week by the Cyclones, thinking TCU would have the horses in the running game to finish off Iowa State. I was wrong! (Dilly, dilly?). The Cyclones have been a covering machine this season at 6-1, while the Mountaineers have disappointed at 3-5. I figured ISU would’ve opened as a field goal favorite. I was wrong, as the Mountaineers keep getting more respect from Vegas than they deserve. They had multiple opportunities last week to take control against Oklahoma State, but they couldn’t turn two-straight OSU fumbles to open the game into any points. The WVU defense isn’t all that good and their offensive line is going to have issues with Ray Lima and the front seven of the Cyclones. Remember last week when Will Grier threw four interceptions because the Oklahoma State defensive line was giving him trouble…? This week he will have those issues again. Plus, I’m done losing money betting against Matt Campbell and his guys.

The Pick: Iowa State +3

Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma

These two teams haven’t played their best football in recent weeks. But this weekend it’s an elimination game for the College Football Playoff. I’m not going to make a play on the spread because I don’t feel good about either of these teams at the moment. One thing I do feel good about? A lot of points being scored. Temperatures will be in the 70s in Stillwater on Saturday with light winds. Plus, the total has gone over in 7 of Oklahoma State’s last 8 games at home. OSU should torch this mediocre OU secondary and while Oklahoma State’s defense has played better of late, their blitz won’t be able to get to Mayfield. The Oklahoma offensive line is outstanding and even if Mayfield is flushed out of the pocket, that’s sometimes when he’s at his best.

 

The Pick: OVER 76

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TCU vs. Texas 

Surprisingly, Texas keeps getting disrespected. Since their loss to Maryland in the season opener, the Longhorns are 7-0 against the spread. Also, they’re 3-0 ATS as an underdog. Tom Herman knows how to cover, and sometimes win, against top-ranked teams. Herman also realizes that these in-state games against teams that have been performing better than Texas in recent seasons are as important as any. We also saw this TCU offense struggle mightily in Ames last week. While they won’t get caught off guard this week, a touchdown feels like a big number for a defense as good as Texas brings to town.

The Pick: Texas +7

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