It’s make or break time for Scott Frost and the UCF Knights.
Officially joining the Big 12 in 2023, UCF was always expected to make a transition from its time in the American, but what’s frustrated so many fans over the past three years is just how little progress has been made between two head coaches, Gus Malzahn and Scott Frost, the latter arriving last season.
Many a critic will point to the Knights’ lack of quarterback play since joining the league, but that, frankly, is the least surprising part of the story. Four different quarterbacks appeared in Frost’s first season back in Orlando, Florida, and none of them appear on UCF’s depth chart entering fall camp.
Frost scored James Madison transfer Alonza Barnett III as his grand solution, and it’s an instant jolt to a quarterback room that struggled as the 90th scoring offense in 2025.
The real story is whether the Knights can piece together an offense capable of converting on third down, bump the needle in scoring, and give their Big 12 counterparts a run for their money. That hasn’t been the case with seven total conference wins since joining the league three years ago.
Best Scenario: The Knights Go Bowling
It’s not impossible to see UCF in the bowl picture, and they were damn close a year ago.
Whether the Knights notch six wins, though, depends on how many breaks the defense can afford an offense that has a lot to figure out with a transfer-heavy offense.
Swing losses against Kansas and a top-25 Houston team were perfect examples of games where the Knights simply missed the boat on putting the contest away. UCF, though, finished the season holding opponents to 35% on third down, and return a good lot of talent defensively again this fall.
The Alex Grinch defense returns four of five starters, including safety Demari Henderson, to its secondary, and two big-body tackles, RJ Jackson and Horace Lockett, gives the Knights some teeth up front. A senior, Lewis Carter, is tasked with leading the linebacker corps after tallying 92 combined tackles, two sacks and four TFLs in 2025.
The schedule includes some key opportunities to get to six wins: Bethune-Cookman, Pittsburgh and Georgia State line the non-con; Oklahoma State, Baylor, Kansas, Arizona State, Iowa State and Colorado are all Big 12 games where UCF should compete at the very least.
Worst Scenario: The Tarp Doesn’t Hold
Frost recruited 33 different transfers to UCF this offseason, including nearly his entire offensive line and just about everywhere else.
Returning receivers Duane Thomas and Waden Charles are back, but the receiving corps is looking to build on Barnett’s arm with ULM transfer Jonathan Bibbs, who caught 26 passes for 383 yards and three touchdowns a season ago in the Sun Belt. Favorites for the backfield include Landen Chambers, a 5-foot-11, 215-pound rusher from Central Arkansas, and Duke Watson, who averaged 8.9 yards per carry at Louisville in 2024, but was limited last year due to injury.
It’s a lot of pieces for the offense to incorporate this fall, and should Frost struggle to take a step forward in production, or heaven forbid the injury bug finds the Knights, it could get tricky keeping the defense off the field with this schedule. There’s some winnable contests in there, but the likes of TCU, Houston and BYU coming at UCF in the span of four weeks is some tough football in October.
Frost signed a five-year contract with UCF worth $22.1 million through the 2029 season, and the bar isn’t terribly high at just five wins in 2025. Falling below that marker though puts the Knights in a tough spot in Year 3 with a coaching higher many thought would line the Knights up as a competitor. I’d say his job is safe whether or not UCF goes bowling, but it sure makes his job tougher if they don’t.
