The College Football Playoff will expand to 24 teams in 2027. What does that mean for the Big 12 Conference? It likely means anywhere from three to five teams make the playoff every season.
That means that next year the race gets a lot more complicated. The conference championship goes away so the league must determine who gets the automatic berth. Credentials become even more important, and making sure you have that all-important power conference non-conference game is a necessity and not a guideline.
The expansion of the playoff got me thinking — who is best suited to compete for those three to five playoff berths now and how far are the rest of those teams away from competing? So I built power rankings based on the expanded playoff.
The criteria? Admittedly, vibes are a part of it. But I tried to account for the quality if the team now, along with donor bases, NIL support, revenue generation and what I believe the program can be in the next two-to-four years.
So here are my 2027 Big 12 College Football Playoff power rankings, from worst positioned to best positioned.
16. Colorado
The Buffs are trapped. If they keep Deion Sanders, the NIL money may continue to come in but there is no guarantee the team gets better. Fire him and the buyout is crippling, the attention he brings goes away and it’s almost like a complete reset. They’re the worst positioned program in the conference and I’m not sure how quickly it get better.
15. Iowa State
This isn’t about head coach Jimmy Rogers or even the NIL collective that has done great work in Ames. The reality is money has always been an issue at Iowa State, whether it be for facilities or NIL. They couldn’t stop the exodus of players to Penn State and Rogers knew that his first year or two were going to be tough. That’s the reality for new athletic director Jared Benko — finding the revenue needed to compete in football, even as men’s basketball dominates the landscape.
No program would benefit more from a Boone Pickens or Tilman Fertitta than ISU.
More: Lance Leipold Joins Deion Sanders on Big 12 Hot Seat Watch in Week 11
14. Baylor
I have a hard time understanding why Baylor is so inconsistent as a football program. No Big 12 program rides more peaks and valleys than the Bears and right now they’re in a valley — kind of, I guess? Baylor fired head coach Dave Aranda. A new coach is on the way, a transfer portal exodus is likely, and another cycle of rise and fall is coming. If the Bears ever get consistently good, look out. But I don’t trust them. That’s my issue. I don’t trust them to sustain success.
13. Cincinnati
The Bearcats made some flashy facility moves when they joined the league, including a brand-new football facility that is one of the best in the country. Like the other newer non-power league members, the full revenue share is going to help them catch up. The donor class is catching up too. Many of their NIL moves have been solid but not flashy, but flash isn’t necessary. The Bearcats didn’t capitalize on last year’s success. They’re not as well-positioned as I thought they might be at this point.
12. Kansas
I wonder if Lance Leipold’s job is under scrutiny. Kansas’ nine-win season in 2023 created plenty of energy but there has been no follow-up on the field and that’s probably creating issues for athletic director Travis Goff. When the on-field product doesn’t line up with what’s happening behind the scenes — the David Booth renovation and the KU Gateway District project — that leads to questions from boosters and an unwillingness to help with NIL.
Basketball will always be in great shape. Football hinges on success and the Jayhawks haven’t had enough of it of late.
11. TCU
The Horned Frogs were coming off back-to-back 9-4 seasons entering 2026 and now they may not make a bowl game. The locals are getting restless and even with a prohibitive buyout there’s some though TCU might move on from head coach Sonny Dykes (or maybe that’s wishful thinking on the part of some boosters).
But the uncertainty is part of the problem. Donors don’t want to foot the NIL bill if they’re worried the program is not there it should be. TCU has a quality donor base. The Horned Frogs have great facilities because of that. What the country sees is a program that went to the CFP national championship game in 2022 and has failed to sniff the Big 12 championship game since then.
10. Kansas State
Kansas State should be higher. But the coaching change from Chris Klieman to Collin Klein is pressure-testing the program more than I anticipated. The Wildcats are taking a step back this year so, hopefully, they can take a step forward next year.
The Wildcats have been consistent winners for so long that this season just feels weird. Being consistent winners helps drive NIL and revenue generation. One off year won’t impact it that much. But there are schools with less success and more resources. That’s why the quality of the team right now matters in the near term. As the team gets better, the resources should get better and the Wildcats should move up this list.
9. UCF
I truly believe this program is the sleeping giant. The Knights have the resources they need —the money, the donor base, the right athletic director in Terry Mohajir and a fertile state where there is an abundance of prep recruits — and college transfers that want to go home. But the team has be good enough to capitalize on this. Since joining the Big 12 the Knights have won no more than six games. New head coach Scott Frost has the Knights a win away from bowl eligibility. If he keeps making progress with this reboot, UCF will be a problem real fast.
8. West Virginia
Athletic director Wren Baker is devising creative ways to drive more revenue to support football. Bringing back head coach Rich Rodriguez has been a shot in the arm. He landed the perfect quarterback for his system in Michael Hawkins, who has at least one more year ahead of him. If it weren’t for the defense, I would be more bullish. Without a competent defense, the Mountaineers will be stuck in the middle of this conference. Some of that can be solved by the portal — but they must choose the right players.
7. Arizona
I really like where Arizona is at right now. The Wildcats were patient with head coach Brent Brennan after that awful first season and they’ve really turned a corner. The trick will be next season when they don’t have Noah Fifita at quarterback. A talented player like him solves a lot of problems for a school like Arizona.
I know the money has been tight in Tucson the past few years, but the energy around the program is helping to move the Wildcats in the right direction. Combined with the success of the men’s basketball team, Arizona is positioned to drive more revenue, given Brennan more support and keep the Wildcats moving forward. Next year may be a little bumpy without Fifita. But another winning season allows Brennan to explore portal options along with recruiting.
FYI — Brennan needs a shots budget in his next contract.
6. Arizona State
The Sun Devils aren’t having quite the season I expected. But head coach Kenny Dillingham has the program moving in the right direction. The donor base is growing, that incredible new indoor performance center is coming, and many of the amenities that other major programs have enjoyed are starting to filter their way into Tempe.
The only trick is keeping Dillingham, who will be connected to every major job for good reason but is an Arizona native and has his “dream job.” Just keep him happy and the program will always be in the mix. Keep the revenue flowing and the Sun Devils can be playoff contenders every season.
5. Houston
The Cougars will lose quarterback Conner Weigman after the season due to eligibility. But they have a five-star quarterback in Keisean Henderson waiting behind him. That’s the beauty of head coach Willie Fritz. He understands how to recruit, how to work the portal and how to develop talent. Plus, he has the resources and support, thanks to megadonor Tilman Fertitta and a growing list of Cougars boosters who are getting in on the action.
Now that the Cougars are getting the full TV share, the support is only going to get better. So long as Fritz is coaching, the Cougars will be contenders in this conference.
4. Oklahoma State
With Mike Gundy gone, the Cowboys have turned a corner when it comes to the transfer portal and NIL, two things Gundy never truly embraced. New head coach Eric Morris understands the new reality and quickly proved he could flip a program in one year. The offense is exciting and quarterback Drew Mestemaker gives Morris an opportunity to convince any quarterback that Stillwater is the place to be.
That, combined with an energized fan base and a growing donor base should allow the Cowboys to be a sustained presence in the conference and contender for an expanded College Football Playoff.
3. BYU
BYU is proving why the Pac-12 Conference never wanted to add them as a member. BYU has quickly gone from the middle of the pack to the top of the heap in the Big 12. That’s for several reasons. Like other schools at the top of the conference, they’re well-resourced. They have a great donor base with a great culture that keeps fans and alumni alike coming back.
Head coach Kalani Sitake is rock solid and the school preserved that by changing his direct report after NIL issues in preseason. BYU has quarterback Bear Bachmeier for at least another season, and the Cougars have the money to handle the NIL. BYU is turning its success into something sustainable.
2. Utah
The school’s private equity deal should help the Utes retain and recruit talent — at least in the short term. It means they can be competitive with anyone when it comes to NIL.
Morgan Scalley may be a new head coach, but he’s not new to Utah and if there was a learning curve he quickly flattened it. The resources are well above the league average, Rice-Eccles Stadium is a perfect place for a Saturday night football game, and the fan base is as energized as any in the conference. There is every indication that quarterback Devon Dampier will return.
Yes, there’s a vocal minority that would like to be in a different conference. But the Utes will be competitive every year in the Big 12 considering these factors.
1. Texas Tech
There’s no real surprise here. Texas Tech is the best resourced program in the conference. So long as mega-booster Cody Campbell is bankrolling the NIL, the Red Raiders can pursue any player head coach Joey McGuire wants. This year’s team may not be as good as last year’s team, but they’re still competitive and in the running for a CFP berth.
The Red Raiders are the most likely sustain their success from year to year due to their combination of resources and coaching. The Red Raiders aren’t going anywhere. They should be yearly participants in the CFP in the expanded format.
