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Big 12 College Football Picks Against the Spread: Week 11 Edition

We went 2-3 last week, putting us at 30-19-2 on the season. Off to Week 11:

Texas @ West Virginia

The Mountaineers are finally relaxing a bit after snapping their losing streak last week with a win over Texas Tech.  Meantime, Texas has won 3 of their last 4 games. In Vegas, the money is coming in at a dead even 50/50 split.

As for this game, it’s a big spread for two teams who prefer to run the ball instead of pass. WVU has shown they are vulnerable against running QB’s such as Trevone Boykin and Pat Mahomes. Now, they get Jerrod Heard, whose best asset is his legs. Both teams are in desperate need of a win as they look to inch closer to bowl eligibility. WVU is 4-9 in November since joining the Big 12, telling me the program still doesn’t have the depth it needs for this conference.  I’ll take UT to cover in a lower scoring, defensive game (at least by Big 12 standards).

The Pick: Texas +8.5

#15 TCU vs. Kansas         

If you recall, last year the Jayhawks gave the Horned Frogs one of their bigger scares of the season in Lawrence. Now, the game shifts to Fort Worth with the Frogs coming off a brutal loss against Oklahoma State. After some different reporting, TCU WR Josh Doctson is expected to play and I imagine the Horned Frogs will be determined, knowing they have to dominate the rest of their opponents to have any shot at the CFB Playoff. They can’t afford to take it easy on a team as bad as the Jayhawks. There’s no statistical measures or insight I should waste my time giving you as to why TCU wins. It’s only a matter of ‘by how much’. This one will get ugly.

The Pick: TCU -45.5

Texas Tech vs. Kansas State

Tech is averaging over 660 yards per game at home, which is 150 more than on the road. Now, Pat Mahomes gets to face a K-State secondary that has been torched by every one of the top passing attacks in the Big 12.

The defense has not been good against the run and now has to face a K-State that is 0-5 in the Big 12, but has played the best in the conference, having yet to face Tech, Iowa State and Kansas. So, maybe K-State isn’t as bad as we thought. But, this game is in Lubbock, where the Red Raiders have shown much more confidence and comfort, and Kliff Kingsbury needs to stop the bleeding to quiet the doubters. Also, Tech needs this win to become bowl eligible (or else risk coming down to a must-win in two weeks vs. Texas). I’ll roll with the Red Raiders.

The Pick: Texas Tech -5.5

#8 Oklahoma State @ Iowa State

Wow. So the line opened at -13, it’s now -13.5, but 70% of the money has been coming in on the Cowboys. Should you buy into the smart money going on the Cyclones?

I was working in Oklahoma when the Cowboys went up to Ames undefeated in 2011, with visions of a BCS Title game on their minds, before losing in overtime on a Friday night. Many will cite this game and be scared by a potential repeat performance. I’m not. The circumstances around that game were much different: Friday night atmosphere, the women’s basketball coach had passed away in a plane crash earlier that morning, and Iowa State was actually a decent football team that season.

No doubt, Mike Gundy will have his guys on high alert. Oklahoma State’s passing attack is on fire and now gets to face an ISU secondary that was torched by TCU, Baylor and OU. Look for the Cowboys to roll in Ames on Senior Day.

The Pick: Oklahoma State -13.5  

#6 Baylor vs. #12 Oklahoma

Art Briles has had Bob Stoops’ number, winning 3 of the last 4 vs. OU, including the past two by a combined 73 points. But, now Stoops gets to face a true freshman QB about to play in the biggest game of his life, while the OU offense is the first one that Baylor has faced that can keep up snap-for-snap with the Bears. It’s games like this that Stoops hired Lincoln Riley to be his new offensive coordinator.

Also, don’t forget the drama from earlier this season when a Baylor assistant was in Norman on the Tulsa sidelines, which ticked off the Sooners coaching staff. Art Briles has quickly become enemy #1 for Bob Stoops. While these issues are less numbers based, here are some of them: Baylor struggled with K-State’s running game last week, and now instead of Joe Hubener, it’s Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon. Baylor’s D couldn’t slow down K-State on the ground and even allowed Iowa State to rush for 232 two weeks ago. Imagine what OU can do?

Oklahoma is about to make a very big statement on national TV and keep themselves relevant in the CFB Playoff race. Also, look out for the more veteran QB, Baker Mayfield, to toss his hat into the Heisman ring after a win tonight.

The Pick: Oklahoma +3

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