Here’s a breakdown of how every Big 12 team stacks up at the midseason mark, according to ESPN’s FPI ratings. These numbers reflect how much a team is projected to outperform or underperform average, based on simulations, strength of schedule, and results so far.
Texas Tech reigns on top in the Big 12, checking in with an FPI of 18.0, the highest rating among league teams. That signals not just elite performance but expectations of sustained success over the season.
Trailing Tech is Utah at 16.3, showing strong momentum in its second Big 12 season, ahead of BYU (14.8). Those three are clearly in a tier of their own.
Next, you have TCU (9.8), Iowa State (9.3), and Kansas (8.5) grouped in the second cluster, respected, dangerous, and capable of upsetting ranked opponents.
The middle of the league sees Cincinnati (8.1) and Kansas State (7.7) holding firm, with Arizona State (6.5) and Baylor (6.1) just behind. These programs are competitive and still in the mix, but apparently have less margin for error.
Down the list, Arizona (5.4) and Colorado (4.1) are in the lower half, teams that will need strong second halves to climb. UCF (3.3) and Houston (2.8) are in danger of being outpaced unless they catch fire.
At the bottom sit West Virginia at –3.0 and Oklahoma State at –13.5, the only Big 12 squads with a negative rating this deep. OSU’s struggles show up clearly in projection models.
What this snapshot gives us is a layered view of the Big 12 hierarchy. Tech, Utah, and BYU are validating early hype. But potentially the most shocking part of the update is Cincinnati, which is currently tied for first place in conference standings with Texas Tech and BYU, checks in all the way down as the seventh-best team in the league. Well, ESPN is ESPN for a reason; unfortunately, that comes at the expense of Cincinnati this time around.
These FPI numbers don’t guarantee outcomes, but they do map expectations. As the season marches on, teams will either validate or defy these forecasts, and the biggest gains may come from those in the middle trying to break into the top tier.
