Iowa State plays Kentucky in the second round of the NCAA Tournament this afternoon, and we’ve got your prediction, preview and best bet from Heartland College Sports, an independent Big 12 digital media outlet covering the Big 12 Conference. Iowa State beat Tennessee State in the first round, while Kentucky needed a buzzer-beating three-pointer to force overtime, and then beat Santa Clara in overtime. Here’s everything to know ahead of the match up.
Iowa State vs. Kentucky Basketball Updated Odds
Iowa State opened up as a 4.5-point favorite, with an over/under set at 145.0 total points in this game. The line really hasn’t moved, even without Joshua Jefferson, as Iowa State actually increased to a 5-point favorite in many books, with the over/under seeing the most movement as we approach tip off, as the total points has increased to 146.5.
Key Storyline: No Joshua Jefferson, Who Steps Up?
Jefferson leads the Cyclones in rebounds per game and is second on the team in both points per game and assists per game this season. We now know he won’t play vs. Kentucky after sustaining an ankle injury against Tennessee State, which is a huge blow for the Cyclones. Iowa State needs a couple of players to step up. The most obvious choice is freshman Killyan Toure, who scored a career high 25 points in the First Round win.
Match Up to Watch: On the Glass
If Kentucky is going to pull off the upset, they will have to beat Iowa State on the glass and take advantage of second-chance points, especially since Jefferson is out. Kentucky was in the top half in the SEC for offensive rebounds and overall rebounds, while Iowa State only ranked 11th in the Big 12 in rebounds per game. This was one of the few weaknesses for the Cyclones this season. And now, with Jefferson out, this could be a place that the Wildcats take advantage against the Cyclones.
Prediction: Iowa State 68, Kentucky 65
The Cyclones still have enough firepower to win this game, and I believe they will get it done against a Kentucky team that is stronger and more consistent defensively than it is offensively. Iowa State needs to win by slowing the tempo down, playing great defense, and scoring with efficiency. With that being the case, I’d lean heavily on the under and give Iowa State the edge to win this game, even without Jefferson. They’re a more consistent team, can still spread the floor in ways that Kentucky can’t, and will win a tight one to advance to the Sweet 16.
