For every conference contender, there is always the chance of being upset. Things are no different in the Big 12 Conference.
Here, we determine the most likely upset to watch for each contender in the Big 12.
First order of business — who are the contenders? Fair question. The Big 12 tends to be a wide-open league. There hasn’t been a repeat champion since 2020 (Oklahoma). Aside from Texas’ title in 2023 on their way out of the league, the champions have included Baylor, Kansas State, Arizona State and Texas Tech.
But we must draw a line somewhere. I drew mine at six wins in league play last year. The six teams that had at least six league wins last year were Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, Houston, Arizona and Arizona State. Four of those teams finished with 10 or more wins.
Next, what constitutes an upset? Again, let’s look at the standings. In Big 12 play, it’s a team that was under .500 in both conference play and overall. In non-conference, we’ll look at teams that were under .500 last year. Also, every attempt was made to not repeat teams.
So, let’s do this.
Texas Tech: at Oklahoma State, Nov. 14
While Oregon State’s upset of Texas Tech on Sept. 12 in Corvallis would shake the planet, the Beavers won two games last year and are picked last in the Pac-12. Yep, it’s a thing again.
The Cowboys are a much better choice. They went 1-11 last year and haven’t won a Big 12 game in two years. Mike Gundy is out. Eric Morris is in. Nearly 90 new transfers and some of the trendiest offensive players transferred in from Morris’ old program at North Texas, which went 12-2 last year.
Oh, and Morris played at Texas Tech with Michael Crabtree and for Mike Leach. It has the potential to be a wild game, especially if OSU has turned things around and is in contention for the Big 12 title.
BYU: at UCF, Oct. 24
This one is ripe for an upset. The Cougars must fly cross-country for a game that could be as early as noon Eastern in Orlando. It could be muggy. It could be rainy. It could be a downpour. It’s October in Orlando. Who knows? The Knights were a win away from going to a bowl game last year and went 5-7.
UCF has solved its quarterback problem with Alonza Barrett III, who piloted the James Madison Dukes to the College Football Playoff. He played fearlessly against Oregon in their first-round game. He has the potential to make the Knights a good team in Year 2 of the Scott Frost reboot, good enough to give BYU fits.
Houston: at Colorado, Nov. 14
Boulder in mid-November can be an issue for visiting teams. Expect it to be cold. It could be snowy. It could be rainy. It’s at elevation. Deion Sanders will have the place lit up.
Houston won 10 games last year, and all the focus will be on the Sept. 18 showdown with Texas Tech in Lubbock. But, even if Houston loses that game, the Cougars could win the next eight and — most likely — get to the Big 12 title game. It’s a game like this, against a Colorado team eager to bounce back after last season‚ that could really trip them up.
Utah: Arkansas, Sept. 12
Wait? What?! An SEC team at home is an upset? What? But I thought the SEC was all that and a bag of …
Well, Arkansas went 2-10 last year and, like Oklahoma State, lost every league game. But I’m sure someone in SEC country could argue that Arkansas was a better team than half the teams in the SEC.
Anyway, new head coach Ryan Silverfield has already made the Razorbacks more talented, and the Hogs are worth taking seriously. Plus, that will be new head coach Morgan Scalley’s third game at the helm. If things get sideways, well, it could get really interesting in Salt Lake City.
Arizona: at West Virginia, Oct. 10
Arizona dodges a variable with the timing. The weather should be OK in Morgantown in mid-October. It’s the final game before Arizona’s bye week, so the Wildcats might get caught looking ahead to a week off before a back half of a schedule that starts with a home game against Iowa State, followed by a trip to Texas Tech. It’s gonna be electric because it’s Mountaineers fans and that’s just how they roll.
It’s an east coast trip and a cross-country flight for a game that could be as early as noon Eastern when the body is telling you it’s 9 a.m. Things could get dicey for the Wildcats.
Arizona State: vs. Baylor, Oct. 3
Think about the last time that the Big 12 sent teams overseas. That was the Iowa State-Kansas State game. Remember who lost that game? Kansas State. Remember what happened next? The Wildcats went 6-6 and skipped a bowl game after Chris Klieman’s retirement.
Arizona State and Kansas are going to London to play at Wembley Stadium on Sept. 19. The Sun Devils get a week off before they host Baylor. The Bears have an improved quarterback situation and an improved defensive coordinator situation. Jet lag doesn’t last two weeks. But losing a game overseas and having to wait two weeks to avenge it does. If ASU loses in London, watch this game.
