Just a season ago, some folks, including college football mogul Phil Steele, thought the Baylor Bears had all the makings of a Big 12 Conference contender. With 18 starters and quarterback Sawyer Robinson back, the Bears sure looked like a competitive program at the very least entering the 2025 season, but sputtered after a 4-2 start to the regular season for a 5-7 finish.
Baylor parted ways with AD Mack Rhodes last year, and stayed in-house with Doug McNamee, who opted to keep head football coach Dave Aranda, now 36-37 all-time in Waco, Texas, through six seasons, with his contract set to expire in 2029. But whether he makes it to the end of that paperwork hinges on whether his portal project pays off this fall, and there’s several questions.
Just five players return from last year’s team, including just one starter on offense, right tackle Kaden Sieracki Jr. Working the portal, Aranda hitched six offensive starters, including former five-star passer DJ Lagway from Florida, and another seven on defense led by former Kansas State DC Joe Klanderman. How it all fits together is interesting enough, but whether Aranda can justify the final few years of his contract is the biggest storyline around the Bears entering 2026.
The Sun is On Dave Aranda’s Back
Missing a bowl game last year, Aranda’s tenure with the Bears officially became a losing one with seven losses. The Texas Tech alum managed a decent portal haul this offseason (and certainly a gem in Lagway) but Baylor’s in need of a reset if its going to continue handing Aranda the slack needed to move the needle with his football program.
Lagway is looking to hit that reset button, too, after a disappointing end to his time at Florida. While Lagway proved a capable passer with 4,179 yards for 28 touchdowns as a Gator, he’d tally 14 interceptions and was sacked 19 times in his sophomore campaign alone. He just barely cleared 2.0 yards per carry with his legs, but did make 121 attempts on the ground.
The offense lacks proven skill. Oklahoma State transfer Gavin Freeman is an easy start at wide receiver, and running back Dawson Pendergrass is back after rushing for 5.5 yards per carry in 2024.
Aranda won a Big 12 title with the Bears in 2021, but that campaign, which saw Gerry Bohanon and Baylor defeat Ole Miss 21-7 in the Sugar Bowl, but instead of maintaining that success, it’s been a slide of sorts for the coaching camp. He’s cycled through a few coordinators from OC Larry Fedora to DC Jeff Grimes to Klanderman and OC Jake Spavital now in 2026.
Can the Bears Be Tougher Against the Run?
As with the offense, the Bears are patching things up front with eight new transfers, including Hosea Wheeler from national champion Indiana, to build an answer for a run game that hurt Baylor a year ago.
Historically, though, Baylor hasn’t had success building its defensive line in the transfer portal. Last year, the Bears allowed 4.9 yards per carry and recorded just 12 sacks with transfers from the SEC, Big Ten and the American; They return Devnote Tezino at tackle this year and will lean heavily on outside experience to slow down offenses in the trenches, once again.
Is There a Win in November?
Eyeing the schedule, it’s another tough finish to the season for Baylor with Iowa State, BYU (in Utah), Texas Tech and Houston (in Texas) lining the final weeks of November. A No. 15 Utes team rolled the Bears 55-28 last year in Waco.
Baylor’s best odds at Big 12 wins come against the Cyclones (Nov. 7), at Kansas (Oct. 24), and Colorado (Sept. 26).
It’s not that Baylor hasn’t proven it can win – it’s certainly put together some exciting offenses during Aranda’s tenure – but those bells and whistles aren’t worth much when you’re hovering around bowl eligibility five years removed from a league title.
