UCF and Houston enter Week 5 coming off impressive wins, and now two teams trying to establish themselves as legitimate factors in the Big 12 race meet in Houston.
The Knights improved to 3-1 last weekend with a 21-13 win over TCU, despite once again playing without starting quarterback Alonza Barnett III. Keyone Jenkins stepped in and was nearly perfect, completing 19 of 20 passes, while the UCF defense forced four turnovers and held TCU to just three points in the second half.
Houston also enters at 3-1 after taking care of business on the road against Georgia Southern, 42-28. Conner Weigman was outstanding, throwing four touchdown passes and rushing for two more as the Cougars bounced back from their narrow loss at Texas Tech.
Now both teams return to Big 12 play with an opportunity to make an early statement.
UCF has already shown that Scott Frost’s team can win with defense and its running game, even without its starting quarterback. Houston, meanwhile, has looked like one of the Big 12’s more dangerous offensive teams through the first month of the season and enters Week 5 ranked No. 20 in the AP Poll.
Is UCF ready to prove last week’s win over TCU was no fluke? Or will Houston protect its home field and continue building its case as a legitimate Big 12 contender?
Houston vs. UCF Odds
- Spread: Houston -12.5
- Over/Under: 51.5
- Moneyline: Houston -465/UCF +350
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Who Wins the Turnover Margin?
UCF has been one of the best in the country in turnover margin. The Knights are in the Top 15 in the country in turnover margin, while Houston is sitting inside the Top 30. Both programs have been very solid in this area. So going into this game at Houston on Saturday, who capitalizes on the big mistake? Specifically, UCF has a Big 12-best six interceptions so far this season, but Houston quarterback Conner Weigman has only thrown one pick on the season. Can Alex Grinch’s defense force Weigman into a couple big mistakes? Last year, UCF picked off Weigman three times, including a pick six, but Houston came back from a 24-14 deficit to win the game 30-27.
Houston vs. UCF Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Houston 24, UCF 16
First off, the spread is wildly insulting here. UCF’s defense, notably along the front line, was impressive last week vs. TCU, and deserves more respect than this. That being said, Houston is home, can’t afford an 0-2 start to Big 12 play, and is able to combat much of what UCF does well. The Cougars have the best rushing defense in the Big 12 so far this season, giving up just over 63 yards per game on the ground. They’ve had more issues slowing down teams in the passing game, where even Georgia Southern threw for nearly 300 yards last week. But that’s not UCF’s game, especially with Keyone Jenkins leading the way in place of Alonza Barnett. I know many will point to his 19/20 stat line for last week, but UCF winning this game through the passing attack is something that I can’t imagine Scott Frost wants to do.
Plus, UCF is just a much better home team than they have been on the road. UCF is 5-7 in Big 12 home games, and 3-14 in road games since joining the conference.
And if you want a deep-in-the-weeds, icing-on-the-cake stat: 3rd downs. Houston is No. 1 in the Big 12 in third-down conversions at 71%, while UCF ranks 13th at 35%. That can catch up with you over the span of an entire game.
Houston wins. UCF covers.
