Utah is now the overwhelming favorite to reach the Big 12 Championship Game, according to ESPN Analytics, following Colorado’s stunning upset of No. 14 Houston on Friday night.
The Buffaloes’ 42-32 victory over the Cougars shook up the conference championship race, leaving several teams with a clearer path to Arlington as Week 11 continues.
ESPN’s College GameDay shared updated probabilities Saturday morning, with Utah holding a commanding lead over the rest of the conference.
More: Big 12 Football Week 11 Picks and Predictions
ESPN’s Updated Big 12 Championship Game Odds (November 14, 2026)
According to ESPN Analytics, here are the five teams with the best chances of reaching the Big 12 Championship Game:
- Utah (6-0 Big 12): 93%
- Texas Tech (5-1 Big 12): 44%
- BYU (4-2 Big 12): 30%
- Oklahoma State (4-2 Big 12): 17%
- Arizona (4-2 Big 12): 9%
Baylor, also sitting at 4-2 in conference play, has a 6% chance of reaching the championship game.
Utah’s position is particularly impressive. The Utes remain undefeated in Big 12 play and enter Saturday’s road showdown against Arizona ranked No. 2 in the College Football Playoff standings.
Texas Tech, meanwhile, remains in control of its own destiny but faces a difficult road test against Oklahoma State on Saturday night.
Houston’s Loss Opens Door for Big 12 Contenders
Houston entered Friday’s matchup against Colorado with a 4-2 conference record and legitimate hopes of reaching the Big 12 Championship Game.
But the Cougars’ loss dropped them to 4-3 in league play, putting Willie Fritz’s team in a difficult position with just two regular-season games remaining.
That result provides an opportunity for the conference’s remaining contenders.
BYU hosts Baylor on Saturday in a matchup featuring two teams with identical 4-2 Big 12 records. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State can make a major statement by beating Texas Tech, while Arizona has an opportunity to hand Utah its first loss.
With the Big 12 moving away from its conference championship game after this season, the race for one final appearance in Arlington is becoming increasingly intriguing.
Utah appears to be in the driver’s seat, but behind the Utes, the battle for the remaining championship game spot remains wide open.
