Baylor Bears

Big 12 college football picks against the spread: Week 10

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I continue to let you down this season with my picks. Why? I don’t know. But, I didn’t even bother getting a pick up for Oklahoma-Iowa State last night. In fact, I considered taking the week off, but, I can’t let myself be seen as a quitter. My lean last night was the Cyclones, but of course, I never made an official pick on it.

Anyway, here’s to Week 10. Last week was a 1-4 showing, putting me at a pathetic 18-28 this season. Also note, less overthinking with these picks. My synopsis’ will be shorter and sweeter and to the point. Go with your gut, right? Regardless, proceed with caution.

Texas @ Texas Tech

Both defenses aren’t any good. Texas has the 95th ranked pass defense in America. Not good when you’re about to take on Patrick Mahomes. But, Texas Tech’s overall defense ranks 126 of 128 teams in the FBS. The benefit for Texas is they can keep their defense off the field by using D’Onta Foreman heavily in the ground game and chewing up the clock.

While Texas has struggled on the road, they will get revenge for last year’s loss to Tech at home. Plus, Mahomes is still nursing the shoulder injury and the Red Raiders offense was not firing on all cylinders last week. The Longhorns get the win in Lubbock and cover.

The Pick: Texas -3

TCU @ #17 Baylor

The Bears suffered their first loss of the season last week against Texas, and now the test begins. Does this team fold up since the undefeated season is over and there are still stories swirling all over Waco about the sexual assault scandal? Or, do they focus on still winning a Big 12 title and playing for coach Grobe? That’s the hardest part to factor into Saturday.

Meantime, TCU is a mess. The Frogs are 1-3 in the past month, and now have a QB controversy with Kenny Hill and Foster Sawyer both looking to take snaps. The good news is TCU’s ground game has been solid averaging 5 yards per carry, while Baylor got torched last week by Texas RB D’onta Foreman.

Kavontae Turpin might play a larger role this week for the Horned Frogs as he continues to recover from injury and the TCU defensive line (2nd nationally in sacks behind Alabama) should give Seth Russell all he can handle.

60% of the money is coming in on Baylor, but the line has been shrinking. I’m with the wise guys here.

The Pick: TCU +7.5 

Kansas State vs. #18 Oklahoma State 

The Pokes are coming off their best win this season beating undefeated West Virginia at home. But, now they need to go on the road to Manhattan, always a tough place to play, against a classic Bill Snyder-coached team.

The Wildcats are the best team in the Big 12 in red zone offense and red zone defense. Also, Oklahoma State’s defense relies on turnovers, leading the Big 12 with 19 forced turnovers this season. Well, Kansas State doesn’t turn the ball over. The Wildcats lead the Big 12 with only 7 on the season.

Plus, while OSU’s running game has improved lately, Kansas State is ranked 5th in the country allowing just 102 yards per game on the ground.

The Pick: Kansas State -3 

#20 West Virginia vs. Kansas

How do the Mountaineers bounce back from their first loss of the season? Is the mojo gone in Morgantown? Or are the Mountaineers still looking to win a Big 12 title?

For the record, these games involving Kansas are the hardest to pick. They’re always a 5-touchdown or more underdog and there’s no good way to have a feel on a game like that, since it often comes down to effort and not actual match ups.

57% of the public money is coming in on West Virginia, but the line has not budged, meaning the sharps like Kansas. I’m going to join them here, believing WVU may score in the 40s, but Kansas can do enough to just cover this massive spread in Morgantown.

The Pick: Kansas +34.5

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