Houston vs. Cincinnati: Prediction, Preview, Betting Odds
Week 4 of the college football season is here. Houston plays Cincinnati, and Heartland College Sports has your game prediction, preview, and betting odds ahead of the matchup.
GAME INFO
Saturday, Sept. 21; 11 a.m. (CT); Nippert Stadium; Cincinnati, Ohio
TV: FS1
Records: Houston (1-2), Cincinnati (2-1)
Last Week: Houston 33, Rice 7; Cincinnati 27, Miami (OH) 16
Series History: Houston leads, 15-14
Last Meeting:Â Cincinnati 24, Houston 14 (Nov. 11, 2023)
Fun Fact:Â The last time the Cougars traveled to Nippert Stadium, UC and Houston competed for the 2021 AAC Championship, a game in which the Bearcats won, 35-20. The victory propelled Cincinnati into the 2021 College Football Playoff Semifinals. Two seasons later the two teams joined the Big 12.
Houston vs. Cincinnati Betting Lines and Odds
Opening Line: Cincinnati (-7.5)
Over/Under: 48.5
Key Players
Houston
QB Donovan Smith
New Cougars coach Willie Fritz committed to the holdover quarterback when he arrived and that’s starting to pay off. In Smith’s last game against Rice, he had three total touchdowns, two on the ground and one in the air. The previous week, on the road against Oklahoma, he had one of the most efficient games of his career, completing 85.7% of his passes (24 of 28). It was also the best completion rate of any quarterback nationally against a team in the AP Top 25 since 2022 (minimum 25 passes attempted).
CB Jeremiah Wilson
The Cougars have a solid group of cornerbacks, led by Wilson, who pulled off his second career interception at Oklahoma two weeks ago. For those that are into advanced analytics, Pro Football Focus ranks Wilson sixth nationally and tops in the Big 12 among cornerbacks in defensive grade (85.8) and coverage grade (86.7). The numbers say that throwing his way probably isn’t going to go well.
Cincinnati
QB Brendan Sorsby
The Bearcats had to upgrade at quarterback after last season, and importing Sorsby from Indiana through the transfer portal has paid off so far. In three games he has completed 65 of 103 passes for 867 yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions. Dating back to last season with the Hoosiers he hasn’t thrown a pick in 115 pass attempts. On third down this season he has completed 68% of his passes for 236 yards and two touchdowns. That ability on third down gives the Bearcats a chance to win every week.
LB Jared Bartlett
He’s emerged as the Bearcats’ most productive pass rusher through three games. He has two sacks and four tackles for loss, along with 16 total tackles, which leads all Cincinnati players. The redshirt senior is familiar with the Big 12. He played five seasons and in 50 games at West Virginia, totaling 134 tackles and 21.0 tackles for loss in his career with the Mountaineers. He’s been invaluable as defensive tackle Dontay Corleone has slowly ramped up from his health issues this summer.
KEY STORYLINES
Houston
The debut of Fritz as head coach has had its bumps. Falling at home to UNLV to open the season now seems to be more about opening-night jitters. The Cougars went to Oklahoma and pushed the Sooners to the brink of an upset and then handled Rice in their annual “Bayou Bucket” game last week. Houston wants to run the ball, and up until last week the Cougars were struggling with it. But after putting 237 rushing yards on Rice, it’s possible Houston is on track.
Cincinnati
The Bearcats are a complete collapse against Pitt away from being 3-0 going into Big 12 play. If Cincinnati misses a bowl game, it will look back on that contest wistfully. If Houston wants to run the ball, the Bearcats love the production they’re getting from veteran back Corey Kiner, as he has 326 rushing yards in three weeks. If there are concerns its on defense. The Bearcats are giving up 438.7 yards and 21.3 points per game. The yardage is concerning, especially as conference play begins.
PREDICTION: Cincinnati 31, Houston 28
This is a 50-50 game, in spite of the betting line. Why? Because these two teams are both fighting for the same thing — bowl eligibility at season’s end. In games like this, give the home team the edge, even if the Bearcats’ loss to Pitt at Nippert two weeks ago gives some pause.
