The Big 12 continues to slowly roll out its conference schedule with a Week 3 Friday night matchup between Colorado and Houston. Of course, the season kicked off in Week 0 with a Big 12 matchup between Iowa State and Kansas State. Week 4 will add a few more games on the conference slate before Week 5 when everyone is all in for the Big 12 fight.
Preseason polls became somewhat a moot point after last season when Arizona State was projected to finish last and end up winning the Big 12. It’s absolutely incredible how quickly programs can turn around in the transfer portal era. There were some preseason “power rankings” through ESPN and other companies. However, the Big 12 decided not to have an official Big 12 media preseason poll moving forward, starting in 2025. Despite that, we’ve seen how each team has played early in the season. Let’s take a look at some early contenders and pretenders.
Contender: Iowa State
Iowa State beat Kansas State in Week 0, a home game for the Wildcats despite being played in Ireland. Then, as a two-touchdown favorite over South Dakota, the Cyclones stomped their way to a 55-7 over the Coyotes. Last weekend, in a battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy, the Cyclones won at home against in-state rival Iowa for the first time since 2011. They’d won a few times at Iowa, including last year, but getting that win at home was huge for Iowa State. If the Cyclones can stay healthy, they should be favored in every game the rest of the season. At this point, they control their own destiny.
Pretender: Kansas State
It’s hard not to label the Wildcats as pretenders at this point. The season-opening loss to Iowa State kicked things off, but a near loss at home to North Dakota and then a home loss to Army (who had just lost to Tarleton State the week prior) really cemented that Kansas State is on the wrong path this season. What began as a season with high hopes quickly turned sour.
Contender: Texas Tech
The Red Raiders have looked dominant early in the season. Sure, they’ve played a few cupcake teams in Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Kent State. They’ve got Oregon State this weekend before a big first conference game against Utah. Texas Tech at Utah will be a big game for the trajectory of contenders vs pretenders going forward in a couple of weeks.
Pretender: Colorado
The Colorado experience continues to be up and down with Coach Prime. This year, it seems like the Buffs are going to be more down than up. A home loss to kick off the season against Georgia Tech didn’t help things. The Buffs kick off Big 12 play against Houston on the road on
Friday night. The Cougars have gotten off to a hot start, but I wouldn’t put them on the contenders list just yet. A win will help bolster both teams’ aspirations with a lot of time left in the season, but for now, Colorado seems like more smoke than fire.
Contender: TCU
The Horned Frogs started the season with a bang, dominating a Bill Belichick-led North Carolina squad in Week 1. TCU returned a ton of talent on both sides of the ball and has the experience to make a run in the Big 12. The one thing working against TCU is its schedule. They face a very good SMU team in a couple of weeks that will be a major test before Big 12 play begins. Then it’s Arizona State, a preseason favorite in the Big 12. They also play on the road at Kansas State, and later in the season, they’ll host Iowa State before heading out to play BYU, a place where wins are always tough to come by. If they make it to the Big 12 Championship, it would be well earned.
Pretender: Arizona State
Yes, it was a late-game meltdown against Mississippi State last weekend, but losing to a team that was projected to finish last in the SEC is not a good look for the preseason top-ranked Big 12 team. Sure, the Sun Devils could make a sweeping run through the Big 12 and make it back to the Big 12 championship. Arizona State also has a tough schedule, opening conference play at Baylor, a team that just beat a top 20 SMU squad. Then they’ll host TCU before going on the road to a top 20 Utah team. It doesn’t get easier at the end of October and early November with Texas Tech and Iowa State, two ranked teams, on the schedule. It’s going to be tough for the Sun Devils to go back-to-back in the Big 12 in 2025.
Notable teams that could make a run: Utah, Kansas, and BYU.
Utah has looked great and has a very favorable conference schedule this year. Their toughest games are against Arizona State and Texas Tech, and those are home games for the Utes. However, the other two notable teams that could make a run, BYU and Kansas, are also on Utah’s schedule, and they will be on the road for those contests.
BYU has looked dominant early in the season and will continue to be a solid team in the Big 12. They’ll especially be tough to beat in their own house. BYU and Kansas have similar schedules, with their toughest games being at Texas Tech and Iowa State. Utah will be a tough win, even at home, for both BYU and Kansas. The rest of their games, they could very well be favored in.
Kansas started out the season 2-0 before losing on the road at Missouri, a very solid SEC team. The Jayhawks held their own in that game, but the defense wore down in the second half and ended up costing the Jayhawks the game. The offense put up 31 or more points in each of their first three games, and as long as quarterback Jalon Daniels stays healthy, they will be able to compete and have a chance to win in every one of their games the rest of the season and be in the mix for a Big 12 Championship Game appearance.
There is so much uncertainty with a majority of the season still to be played, but the trends will continue to show us who can remain a contender as more conference clashes get underway.
